Weather

I have come to the conclusion that Metservice cannot organise a root in a whore house.

The Recreational Forecast for the Gulf, they are not updating it until less than half a day before.
All week I've been watching this weather feature that is coming across tomorrow and expecting some notable weather.
All week Metservice have said it will be Northly 25knts.
Today I checked for the morning and 11 am updates and it still says Northly 25knts.
I thought that was a bit odd cause Predict Wind shows a complete sack of shit. We have the windows off and have been repainting the cabin sides before I put them back on, so I have run tarps over the boom etc to keep moisture off the paint. I don't think those tarps can handle much weather, so despite what Metservice said, I went down tonight and took them all off.

Having made all my plans and decisions, casually check the forecast out of interest. SUDDENLY (between 11 am and 4 pm today) it goes from Northly 25 to GALE WARNING - 35 knots gusting 45 knots - Possibly squally thunderstorms.
Fucking Idiots. Predict Wind has been saying that all week, since last Friday fairly much, and Metservice can't work it out till close of business the day before. Anyone that checked the forecast from lunchtime up to late afternoon will be fully caught out by these clowns...
I reckon they are getting so tardy they are endangering public safety by not updating statutory forecasts in a timely manner.

I'm actually pondering a complaint on this one. It is so amateur.

Here is the current forecast, having been 'Northly 25' all week up till 4:39 pm today:
Wednesday: Northerly 20 knots, rising to 30 knots gusting 40 knots in the morning, then rising to northerly 35 knots gusting 45 knots for a time between late morning and early afternoon. Becoming westerly 15 knots late afternoon, rising to northwest 25 knots gusting 35 knots overnight. Sea becoming very rough between late morning and early afternoon. Poor visibility in morning rain, turning into showers in the afternoon. Possible squally thunderstorms, clearing afternoon. Northerly swell 1 metre developing.

There are no winners in forecasting. weekend before last. predict and Windy showed 2 -5 knts se from 7.00am till 7.00am Sunday for the firth. Yest Metserv showed 10/15 se for same period. That occasion Metserv won.

Right now all 3 show nw 10 at Tekouma. yet now forecasting NE 25 gust avg 18. Which forecast shall I pull out of the file cabinet today?? pretty much how forecasting seems to me. guessing game. Not hard with aircraft/satellite's reporting.

Problem with metserv is buggered if they do dammed if they don't several times in past yrs have forecasted the worst and nothing happened So they cop flack.Go outside and look at the sky and then look at weather maps and you should be able to relate isobars what's going to happen.Bob Mcdavit said a few yea ago due to NZ having a narrow asmith it's hard to predict weather.Wasnt a problem when we had coastal shipping and manned lighthouses The problem most likely untrained personnel on how to read a satellite image

Farrk yes and thankfully.

My main dam got down to 1 maybe 2 days supply left but then I hooked the pump form the other dam which kept pace with the stock. When I sussed the dams yesterday the main one was up a good 500mm and the pine dam a decent 250mm. So we must have had a shit load more up here in rural then in the burbs. I'm still struggling to believe how much water is now in them after that. But very relieved it happened as it was getting very dire.

Now hopefully the grass will start to grow. It tried to kick off about 3 weeks ago after some rain but quickly stopped again. On Sunday the neighbour was hunting for feed so I sold him 37 bales of silage at a good neighbour rate that came with a angle of barter i.e I want to use his seeder. He's sold 1/2 his stock off due to lack of feed. We're hanging in but only due to having a very good supply of silage and hay on hand. I have Mr Affco turning up to to see if the Angus gang are ready for a visit to Moerewa. That'll help and they are close anyway.

The stream clean I started that's morphed into NZ's version of the Suez Canal worked a treat, no over flowing or flooding where I've been. That's great as well. But the amount of water going down must have been huge as I built a 500mm high dam using concrete fence posts and BIG chucks of rock then filled the gaps with fines. The waters beaten the crap out of thatso the flow must have been pumping. The big holes I dug along it are all fill and holding big loads of water bloody well.

So some huge wet but it's got me a both happy and relieved.

Rural got 75mm monday evening. The bits of my Suez Canal development I've done worked 98%, one weir got hammered and needed a rebuild. Had some nice mm's since then so my 2 key dams are looking very shiny. The main one has gone from maybe 50mm to nudging 1m. I have left the pump running as the other dam hit the overflow after Monday nights wet so I can make sure the main is well chocker without any drama.

But now the push has to goon to finish the cleaning/digging before the ground gets too wet. Doing OK so as long as we don't have too much more over the next couple of weeks I'll have that nailed and can get back to preping for the Winter Series.

don't think boating would be on the agenda tomorrow - Bream Head to Cape Colville
Storm Warning
Wednesday: Northwest 25 knots gusting 35 knots but 30 knots gusting 40 knots about Colville Channel, changing southwest 25 knots gusting 35 knots but 30 knots gusting 40 knots about the Channel early morning. Rising to southwest 40 knots gusting 50 knots but 45 knots gusting 55 knots about the Channel early afternoon, and to 50 knots gusting 60 knots about the Channel for a time in the evening. Possible gusts to 60 knots everywhere in afternoon squalls. Sea becoming very high about Colville Channel for a time in the evening. Waves may rise rapidly during squalls. Poor visibility in periods of rain. Squally thunderstorms possible until evening.

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