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Debanked?
May 24, 2024 19:51:56 GMT 12
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Post by DuckMaster on May 24, 2024 19:51:56 GMT 12
It’s interference / uncertainty / govt dependency like this that drives the De-Fi advocates away from CBDCs back towards Bitcoin and similar. The whole point of De-Fi is that it’s effectively ‘the people’s financial system’ with no single dominant owner / operator / controller, like a central bank. The role of any state body should simply be arms length acceptance / approval of the system, ideally best demonstrated by them using it themselves eg tax authorities accepting decentralised payment records to calculate your correct tax bill. CBDCs are a weird hybrid of decentralised instruments offered by a centralised body which creates conflicting tensions. It’s a bit like going to an AA meeting and being sold a bottle of beer. And being told you can open it, sniff it, pass it around, but absolutely can’t drink it. 😳 It's a utopia that can't exist. We've had it before (it was called gold) it failed. Central banks provide monetary policy and regulation, which stabilises economies and manages inflation. Unless the currency is pegged to a central bank currency it will fail as a currency. DeFi for the purpose of tracking loans and managing a central bank currency is different as the underlying asset is still the fiat currency.
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Debanked?
May 25, 2024 10:58:03 GMT 12
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eri likes this
Post by Fogg on May 25, 2024 10:58:03 GMT 12
And that’s how it necessarily starts - small steps with traditional instruments transacting on new de-centralised platforms as a hybrid model. Which might be the worst of both worlds or the best of both worlds, depending on your perspective.
But it will evolve. The EU just agreed some ground-breaking new legislation on this that will accelerate De-Fi adoption by the mainstream institutions.
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Post by ComfortZone on May 27, 2024 15:58:18 GMT 12
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Post by harrytom on May 29, 2024 12:55:26 GMT 12
Off topic but fits in the banking world.
The Govt wants to pass legislation on how much a private or investor can borrow. Might have this wrong but if I can only borrow 6 x my income then in reality the max price house I could purchase would be 650k + deposit.So will this kill the housing market and those looking to make a quick buck??
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Post by fish on May 29, 2024 13:08:56 GMT 12
Off topic but fits in the banking world. The Govt wants to pass legislation on how much a private or investor can borrow. Might have this wrong but if I can only borrow 6 x my income then in reality the max price house I could purchase would be 650k + deposit.So will this kill the housing market and those looking to make a quick buck?? It would be combined household income, so you and your missus income (I assume, and anyone else who wants to put their name on the mortgage). Very few people buy a house by themselves. I doubt it will make much difference for private owner occupiers. You always had to be able to afford the mortgage anyway, and the banks apparently go to great effort to confirm you can afford it. Noting that banks will still try and loan you eye watering amounts. What I don't understand is the impact on investors - noting I'm not a property investor so aren't across all the tricks anyway. Loan to Valley is currently 65% for investors, but they are moving that to 70%, debt to income is 7, but I can't tell if that is income of the investment, or if the investor actually needs to be working in a PAYE type of job, or if the bank looks at their gross taxable income, which may include income from a large portfolio of property. Overall it's supposed to stop a housing market collapse of the market pulls back a bit. There is great debate if it is already way to late for this. In answer to your specific question, the RB is at pains to say it is being introduced very slowly, and only on new lending (you can sell you house and transfer the current mortgage etc and these rules don't apply) - I take it from that they don't want any shocks to the market that will cause a collapse. In terms of making a quick buck, rapid capital gain is a thing of the past, and along with the brightline tax rules, property investing appears to be back to the old secure long term investment focus. I wouldn't think you can make a quick buck now unless you are into developing, and that is an entirely different risk profile.
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Post by Fogg on May 29, 2024 14:53:38 GMT 12
Borrowing money based on multiple of income is the most basic & obvious mechanism to keep things sustainable.
It’s been the method used in the UK for decades. When I was buying my first house in England all the main banks offered in the range 3-4 x household income. If your income was super-high then they sometime allowed a bit higher x multiple. But for 90% population it was 3-4x salary up to 90% of house value -meaning you needed min. 10% deposit.
I could not believe the insane difference when I first came to NZ and was offered 5-6x my salary for a mortgage. Yes it was tempting to snap up a dream big house but I realised it was also utterly insane.
The only thing I’m astonished about is that it’s taken NZ so long to realise this.
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Post by ComfortZone on May 29, 2024 15:23:46 GMT 12
Off topic but fits in the banking world. The Govt wants to pass legislation on how much a private or investor can borrow. Might have this wrong but if I can only borrow 6 x my income then in reality the max price house I could purchase would be 650k + deposit.So will this kill the housing market and those looking to make a quick buck?? (you can sell you house and transfer the current mortgage etc and these rules don't apply) I would verify that before making that assumption. I had a Line of Credit on the old house for about 15 years. When I sold it 3 yrs ago (in part to pay the ex to go away) I assumed ASB would simply transfer the LOC to the new house (already owned for over a year), which was ~ double the value and had no mortgage on it. WRONG! They wanted me go thru the whole application process from scratch - I told them to get stuffed.
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Post by fish on May 29, 2024 15:31:14 GMT 12
(you can sell you house and transfer the current mortgage etc and these rules don't apply) I would verify that before making that assumption. I had a Line of Credit on the old house for about 15 years. When I sold it 3 yrs ago (in part to pay the ex to go away) I assumed ASB would simply transfer the LOC to the new house (already owned for over a year), which was ~ double the value and had no mortgage on it. WRONG! They wanted me go thru the whole application process from scratch - I told them to get stuffed. That bit about transferring the current mortgage and the new DTI's not applying was from the interest.co.nz website article announcing and explaining the new rules. Whether or not your bank will do that is a separate question. Personally I was surprised, cause generally if anything changes, like anything, the bank wants re-assess EVERYTHING with you again, as per your example.
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Post by harrytom on May 29, 2024 17:35:35 GMT 12
But if a family is paying $600/$700 in rent could service a mortage,like a lot of families paying ridiculous rent means cant save a deposit of $100k
That is something banks need to take in too consideration. I think. Had an initial thought,perhaps Govt build up market homes and do a rent to buy,ie in 25 yrs you own the home,no deposit,but you pay rates/insurance/maintaince and have to seek permission to sell during that period.
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Post by muzled on May 30, 2024 8:30:30 GMT 12
Sometimes glacial change seems like a good thing. They come out with some funny quotes though. "The money won’t be programmable, in the sense that the Reserve Bank won’t have any constraints on how the money would be used and the Reserve Bank won’t collect any transaction data or even information about the individuals.www.interest.co.nz/currencies/127995/reserve-bank-could-have-fairly-lengthy-selling-job-build-public-understanding-and#commentsNZ 'lagging' Woolford noted New Zealand is "lagging" in its core payments systems. While payments through the banks by individuals might take an hour, for example, the fast payments systems employed overseas are "near instantaneous." "The New Zealand system is we would say 10-20 years behind other developed countries." Woolford stressed the aim was not to replace cash, but to give choice and spur innovation in the private sector, "because we are seeing a lack of innovation in payments and product offerings" at the moment. A CBDC would also pick up on the role of the current physical NZ dollar by acting "as a value anchor". "The Reserve Bank wouldn’t engage directly with individuals," Woolford said. "They [the public] would access the digital dollar either via their bank or some other financial institution that isn’t a bank. This will open up service providers offering different products for example. "Payments could be made a point of sale. You could do it in a peer-to-peer way - outside of the banking system. It will be available offline. And it will be instant. "The money won’t be programmable, in the sense that the Reserve Bank won’t have any constraints on how the money would be used and the Reserve Bank won’t collect any transaction data or even information about the individuals. "Our relationship will be with the third party providers, so privacy is an important dimension of what we are talking about here." Woolford said he understood the concern that people often have about the Government tracking the money. "That is not the objective of this, with this form of digital cash - and indeed, we would like to see greater protections on the third party use of data than they would have for their own purposes. "Whether or not you as an individual choose to use a digital form of cash in a sense doesn’t matter. If you benefit because digital cash has acted as a spur to innovation, which we think it will, then you will benefit directly," Woolford said. He said the progress on open banking "has been glacial".
"So, you are seeing a lack of innovation from the New Zealand banking system - a lack of competition. Central bank digital currency will be competition in and of itself, because people will have choice, you can choose to use your bank or you can choose to use this other product." Fintech 'going to need to be regulated' Woolford said in talking about third party providers of the CBDC, "it really is the fintech sector that we are thinking about". "For that to work they are going to need to be regulated and there’s got to be trust and confidence in them as well," Woolford said. "That innovation has to come from somewhere. It’s not coming from the banking system. It will eventually but it will take a long time.
"We think that the innovation can come from the fintech sector but people do have to have trust and confidence so there will need to be some form of regulation." The committee members expressed enthusiasm for having the RBNZ back to report further on its CBDC progress at a later date.
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Debanked?
May 30, 2024 9:18:26 GMT 12
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Post by Fogg on May 30, 2024 9:18:26 GMT 12
Interesting they don’t talk about the tech to enable this.
Given the scenarios they describe I don’t think they understand the fundamental tensions / incompatibility of their ‘wish list’ of requirements.
Sounds like they haven’t worked it through yet but it’s either got to be a big private distributed network (operated by a central party - who will that be?) or else a fully public blockchain with no single central operator.
They both offer different pros & cons and different outcomes.
The wish list as it stands is impossible to deliver as it requires both options to be in place.
No wonder progress is glacial…
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Post by ComfortZone on Jun 13, 2024 9:15:22 GMT 12
if you need any confirmation as to the ultimate intent of CBDC's, listen to this guy from the Bank of International Settlements In October 2020, Agustin Carstens, Director General of the BIS, said: "With CBDCs, central banks will have complete control over the rules and regulations that will determine the use and implementation of this method and the responsibility for it, and we will also have the technology to enforce it."
At present Central Banks "manage" inflation by interest rate movements. With CBDC's there's nothing to stop direct intervention, a historical example was the 1990 "Collor Plan" in Brasil In summary, Brasil had runaway inflation in the 80's. Collor was elected president in 1990, and his space cadet of a finance minister decided the way to counter inflation was to remove money from circulation quoting from the link "The Plan took bold measures such as confiscating 80 percent of all banking assets" One weekend the banks operating on government instructions "swept" everyone's bank accounts, if you were single you were left with 800 cruzeiros, couples 1200, equivalent of $200-300. The funds taken were supposed to be repaid 15yrs later with interest but of course did not happen.
I talked to various people about their experiences in this nightmare scenario. The ex said on the one hand her father had just sold a farm and had the money in the bank - gone! On the other hand she said her then boyfriend was from a rich Rio family, they were tipped off and moved their cash assets out of reach. A colleague was then a young engineer, he said he was lucky, he had just been assigned to a remote job (no online banking then) and as he was buying an apartment off plan, he used all his cash to make forward payments so was not affected. Many businesses went to the wall and the economy tanked for a dozen years and people really struggeld to find work
You can hear James Corbett (https://corbettreport.com/) on CBDC's, Digital ID's etc being interviewed on RCR's on line broadcast this morning
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Debanked?
Jun 13, 2024 20:28:34 GMT 12
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Post by DuckMaster on Jun 13, 2024 20:28:34 GMT 12
if you need any confirmation as to the ultimate intent of CBDC's, listen to this guy from the Bank of International Settlements In October 2020, Agustin Carstens, Director General of the BIS, said: "With CBDCs, central banks will have complete control over the rules and regulations that will determine the use and implementation of this method and the responsibility for it, and we will also have the technology to enforce it."
At present Central Banks "manage" inflation by interest rate movements. With CBDC's there's nothing to stop direct intervention, a historical example was the 1990 "Collor Plan" in Brasil In summary, Brasil had runaway inflation in the 80's. Collor was elected president in 1990, and his space cadet of a finance minister decided the way to counter inflation was to remove money from circulation quoting from the link "The Plan took bold measures such as confiscating 80 percent of all banking assets" One weekend the banks operating on government instructions "swept" everyone's bank accounts, if you were single you were left with 800 cruzeiros, couples 1200, equivalent of $200-300. The funds taken were supposed to be repaid 15yrs later with interest but of course did not happen.
I talked to various people about their experiences in this nightmare scenario. The ex said on the one hand her father had just sold a farm and had the money in the bank - gone! On the other hand she said her then boyfriend was from a rich Rio family, they were tipped off and moved their cash assets out of reach. A colleague was then a young engineer, he said he was lucky, he had just been assigned to a remote job (no online banking then) and as he was buying an apartment off plan, he used all his cash to make forward payments so was not affected. Many businesses went to the wall and the economy tanked for a dozen years and people really struggeld to find work
You can hear James Corbett (https://corbettreport.com/) on CBDC's, Digital ID's etc being interviewed on RCR's on line broadcast this morning
So absolutely no different to right now.
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Post by GO30 on Jun 15, 2024 11:41:46 GMT 12
So absolutely no different to right now. Yeap you're spot on there.
Most do not realise if our banks get in the financial shit the NZ Government has given them the right to take all the money from our bank accounts to cover their whatevers. They can take it all bar I think 100K, but don't quote me on the number. I do remember thinking 'nice NZ's number is a bit higher than many others but fuck!!!! all the same'.
Ducky, do you know what our number is?
And before some kick off, if I remember rightly those rules were tweaked by John Keys mob.
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Debanked?
Jun 16, 2024 16:57:54 GMT 12
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Post by DuckMaster on Jun 16, 2024 16:57:54 GMT 12
That's different to my point.
But, it's not the banks can take the money, it's that that's all they have to guarantee. So if they lose your money, then that's all your guaranteed to get. (I can't recall the actual value but 100k sounds about right).
My point was the government can come along at any time and pull out our currency. They can decide it's worthless... And if they wanted to make it worthless they just print trillions and give it away.
All fiat is an artificial construct. The fear of digital currency is fundamentally flawed.
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