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Post by Fogg on Aug 19, 2024 23:21:21 GMT 12
Extraordinary story: One dead and six missing after yacht sinks during tornado off Sicily. mol.im/a/13756627 |
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Post by ComfortZone on Aug 20, 2024 2:27:44 GMT 12
The Med is quite stormy this summer, also
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Post by fish on Aug 20, 2024 8:35:30 GMT 12
How does a freak storm sink a 180ft boat?
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Post by ComfortZone on Aug 20, 2024 9:49:10 GMT 12
How does a freak storm sink a 180ft boat? Remember the superyacht that was knocked flat at the Tank Farm when that microburst hit Westhaven. This vessel must have been knocked down far enough to experience major down flooding and then all over rover sadly.
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Post by Fogg on Aug 22, 2024 18:08:30 GMT 12
The speculation continues. Given the captain & crew survived and the yacht can be easily inspected, surely they will be able to work out exactly how this happened?
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Post by ComfortZone on Aug 23, 2024 4:11:23 GMT 12
The speculation continues. Given the captain & crew survived and the yacht can be easily inspected, surely they will be able to work out exactly how this happened? The world's media have suddenly all become experts on superyacht design  , but all speculation to date. Possible contributing factors knowing Bayesian was at anchor 1. If the lifting keel was up (tbc) then stability is significantly reduced. SY's are quite tender under sail, most need to reef at around 15kts going upwind 2. Was the stern door open? They typically are left open when at anchor 3. The deck arrangement, as shown in this video, would have reduced buoyancy when Bayesian was on her side and provided an easy path for water entry. If it is found these windows have blown in then quite possible major contributing cause
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Post by GO30 on Aug 23, 2024 11:07:59 GMT 12
Word in from a boat close by at the time.
Sounds like she was in 'full anchor mode' and had everything open.
Thinking about it what other options could there be?
If she was mostly closed up and got laid flat then some ingress but not enuff to send her down in literally seconds.
Mast busted and punched a huge hole in her? Again, enuff to sink her in seconds, unlikley.
This board up point mentioned by some. If she has a lifter, I don't know, and it was up she would go over faster but still need some big holes to disappear that fast.
Snapped in 1/2 would do it but that didn't happen.
From all I've heard and seen so far, I'm thinking after an investigation the findings will be it was a shit happens event caused by either climate change or colonisation.
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Post by ComfortZone on Aug 23, 2024 12:30:25 GMT 12
Word in from a boat close by at the time. Sounds like she was in 'full anchor mode' and had everything open. Thinking about it what other options could there be? If she was mostly closed up and got laid flat then some ingress but not enuff to send her down in literally seconds. Mast busted and punched a huge hole in her? Again, enuff to sink her in seconds, unlikley. This board up point mentioned by some. If she has a lifter, I don't know, and it was up she would go over faster but still need some big holes to disappear that fast. Snapped in 1/2 would do it but that didn't happen. From all I've heard and seen so far, I'm thinking after an investigation the findings will be it was a shit happens event caused by either climate change or colonisation. When laid over her on her side both access ways stepping down (under the genoa clew and at the cockpit would have been well under water allowing water to flow directly down below. Hard to say if water would have entered thru the stern door initially, assuming it was open, but after initial ingress thru the 2 access ways there would have been a flood.
No sign of any hull side openings but would assume there are a couple of large deck hatches for tenders, water toys etc. Cannot find specific confirmation that she had a lifting keel, but with a listed draft of 9.7m very likely. Of note she was one of ten of these 56m built by Perini, but the only sloop rigged version, all the rest were ketches. Surprisingly mast is listed as aluminium rather than carbon so alot of weight up high. So with these 2 factors possibly less stable than ketches due to higher CoG
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Post by fish on Aug 23, 2024 15:53:31 GMT 12
Word in from a boat close by at the time. Sounds like she was in 'full anchor mode' and had everything open. Thinking about it what other options could there be? If she was mostly closed up and got laid flat then some ingress but not enuff to send her down in literally seconds. Mast busted and punched a huge hole in her? Again, enuff to sink her in seconds, unlikley. This board up point mentioned by some. If she has a lifter, I don't know, and it was up she would go over faster but still need some big holes to disappear that fast. Snapped in 1/2 would do it but that didn't happen. From all I've heard and seen so far, I'm thinking after an investigation the findings will be it was a shit happens event caused by either climate change or colonisation. Apparently she moved out to the anchorage at 10pm local time (from the harbour). Because of that, I don't think it is plausible they left the stern door / toy garage open. That, and with the storm hitting 4 am / 5 am, you'd assume with 10 crew they'd tidy the place up and close the hull openings. Lot of talk about the keel being up. No info if that is a centreboard, as in not ballasted, or a ballasted keel. Being a class certified ship, you'd expect it to be perfectly stable at anchor with the board up. Apparently they can knock when left down disturbing the billionaires sleep, so it is standard to leave them up. Looking at CZ's post, I'm starting to think this got laid flat by the storm (seems to be fairly good agreement around that assumption, and referencing the one that got laid almost flat at Westyhaven), I can only assume that it is the first time one of these (this particular model) got laid flat, and it just down flooded due to those companionways CZ points out. The only issue with that is, due to it's 400 and something tonnes displacement, for it to sink in 2 minutes requires 4,000 l/s to get into it. That is a hell of a lot of water to get down a companionway. The only other theory is the windows blew in, based on reports from a guest hearing breaking glass and walking over it to get out, cutting feet etc. |
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Post by em on Aug 23, 2024 20:46:24 GMT 12
You don’t leave your garage open in Sicily when you have billionaires and women onboard , or anywhere for that matter . Kidnapping is a thing , usually in the Carribean or South America but it sets the precedent for guest safety .
I’m going to defend the skipper on this one . To still be in the game at 51 he must be good at what he does . Every one is quoting the German bloke next door whose boat made it through . If you compare the westhaven event where the cat literally blew away the cat and that superyacht needed up on her ear , bar a few boats several hundred other boats nearby were unscathed .
I also reckon it got laid on its beam ends by a very localised down draft . The boat probably wouldnt pass cat 3 because there’s openings below and at the sheer line .
Perini navi dude is ass covering , hope they don’t give the skipper any Italian style standover shit . Keel up is not unusual , Ive been halfway up a 50m carbon rig on a 34m boat in fakarava lagoon . Was looking out for uncharted bombies , keel up in 10 knots of breeze motoring, bare poles. A squall that was only about an acre or two in area came across and got us , boat heeled at least 45 degrees . I hung on by the sail track and had to press my head against the mast to breathe , lost 10k worth of hearing aids blown straight out of my ears . That was 45- 50 knots .
There’s much ado about the skipper saying “we didn’t see it coming” I’m taking that as they literally couldn’t see it as it was dark . Accounts have the crew on deck sorting stuff because it’s sporty , they didn’t see the downdraft or whatever it was that took them out . I bet they heard the thunder , saw the weather on whatever app they use and probably the radar too and were prepared for some breeze but not a knockdown .
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Post by fish on Aug 23, 2024 21:02:38 GMT 12
Here is some actual details. AVS with keel up is 73deg. But putting the keel down makes fuck all difference - AVS of 88 deg I'm sure that wouldn't get Cat 3. Info via the Financial Times, the story (not necessarily the data) quoting the Chairman of Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini Navi, aka the guy with a billionaire widow coming after him. Same story states the boat sunk in 16 minutes, but they note that the lights went out within 1 or 2 minutes, the theory being there was down flooding into the engine room, taking out the generator or switch panel, down flooding most likely from engine room ventilation. Once the power was gone, they had a dark ship and very little they could do. www.ft.com/content/cb83948a-1447-4eb7-8c29-27d1c78b6c23 |
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Post by fish on Aug 23, 2024 21:08:18 GMT 12
OK, so the Bayesian wouldn't even get Cat 5!?!?!
Refer YNZ safety regulations:
"Limit of Positive Stability"
Cat3 - 100deg
Cat4 - 95 deg
Cat5 - 95 deg,
And:
6.02(k) d:
For yachts complying with Category 4 and 5,
it may be demonstrated that compliance is
achieved by demonstrating a physical pulldown test in which the masthead shall be
pulled down until it touches the surface of
the water. The yacht will maintain a positive
righting moment at all times during the test
Bayesian couldn't achieve that, with an AVS of 88 deg, the mast could not reach the water in a pull down test without the boat capsizing...
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Post by em on Aug 23, 2024 21:33:51 GMT 12
Here is some actual details. AVS with keel up is 73deg. But putting the keel down makes fuck all difference - AVS of 88 deg I'm sure that wouldn't get Cat 3. Info via the Financial Times, the story (not necessarily the data) quoting the Chairman of Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini Navi, aka the guy with a billionaire widow coming after him. Same story states the boat sunk in 16 minutes, but they note that the lights went out within 1 or 2 minutes, the theory being there was down flooding into the engine room, taking out the generator or switch panel, down flooding most likely from engine room ventilation. Once the power was gone, they had a dark ship and very little they could do. www.ft.com/content/cb83948a-1447-4eb7-8c29-27d1c78b6c23Generators and main would’ve auto shutoff due to low oil pressure from the extreme heel angle . Water may have got there first though . |
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Post by Fogg on Aug 23, 2024 22:48:34 GMT 12
More twists & turns in this tragic event:
”Italian authorities are now 'investigating shipwreck and multiple counts of culpable homicide' - similar to the charge of manslaughter in the UK - according to Italian media.
The investigation is being led by Ambrogio Cartosio, head of the prosecutor's office in the nearby town of Termini Imerese, with more details expected to be revealed at a press conference tomorrow morning.
Causing a shipwreck is a separate offence under the Italian penal code and those found guilty of provoking or causing a shipwreck could face up to 12 years in prison.”
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Post by Fogg on Aug 24, 2024 0:38:24 GMT 12
Ironically, the registered owner of the Bayesian is actually Angela Lynch who survived the ordeal (whereas her husband Mike and daughter Hannah both died of course).
I could see some ugly legal spaghetti appearing if the authorities decide to prosecute the owner and / or skipper for this. Whilst Angela Lynch might be the owner on paper I doubt she was the decision-maker on the night her husband and daughter perished.
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, but all speculation to date.
