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Post by Fogg on Feb 25, 2022 9:12:24 GMT 12
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Post by Fogg on Feb 25, 2022 9:25:11 GMT 12
Given my earlier predictions it’s probably best to ignore my musings but in the cold light of day my best attempt to understand this is as follows…
1. We know he doesn’t want a NATO member on his border
2. We know he aspires to expanding Russia to recover some of the former lost USSR states
3. If he attacks an actual NATO country then this automatically triggers a full-scale response by the whole of NATO - not just a few countries.
4. We know Russia would hurt under a full NATO attack - possibly leaving Russia with the only option to use nuclear (a bit scary but unlikely)
5. Therefore, better for Putin to attack Ukraine now before it’s a NATO country and risk relatively low-level opposition and sanctions etc - rather than a full fight with NATO
But as I said, probably best to ignore all this as it’s no doubt wrong. 😊
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Post by em on Feb 25, 2022 9:28:10 GMT 12
Given my earlier predictions it’s probably best to ignore my musings but in the cold light of day my best attempt to understand this is as follows… 1. We know he doesn’t want a NATO member on his border 2. We know he aspires to expanding Russia to recover some of the former lost USSR states 3. If he attacks an actual NATO country then this automatically triggers a full-scale response by the whole of NATO - not just a few countries. 4. We know Russia would hurt under a full NATO attack - possibly leaving Russia with the only option to use nuclear (a bit scary but unlikely) 5. Therefore, better for Putin to attack Ukraine now before it’s a NATO country and risk relatively low-level opposition and sanctions etc - rather than a full fight with NATO But as I said, probably best to ignore all this as it’s no doubt wrong. 😊 He also has an ego and is getting old so it may be him trying to leave a legacy on top of everything else above you mentioned |
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Post by Fogg on Feb 25, 2022 9:30:52 GMT 12
Last couple of points on the economics:
- Russian economy is not that big (similar to Australia) so more heavy sanctions & asset freezing by the west will hurt them
- If I was the richest person in the world (as Putin is) then I would retire from all this grief and go sailing. I might even consider upgrading Fogg… 😊
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Post by dutyfree on Feb 25, 2022 10:12:52 GMT 12
He needs to maintain control in Russia to stop his replacements killing him and taking his (misappropriated) fortune. It is the normal cycle for dictators as opposed to royalty.
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Post by Fogg on Feb 25, 2022 12:35:05 GMT 12
And don’t forget the statues being pulled down.
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Post by Fogg on Feb 25, 2022 20:35:31 GMT 12
A good watch - if you want to understand what Putin wants you need to understand the ideology that drives him (which the West are guilty of not doing); youtu.be/kYK4UGS-C0I |
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