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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2022 23:00:07 GMT 12
Putin is not going to invade the Ukraine.
If he was he would have done it by now.
What he is doing is making millions of dollars an hour and harming the west/ worlds economies.
This movement of troops is designed to drive up oil and gas prices, rattle the stock market and generally disrupt the economies of the world.
Meanwhile backs in Russia Putin has looked at their big pipeline, that feeds millions of Kg/L's of Gas to Europe and said Spasibo! (that's thankyou in Russian)
There will be no invasion other than the internal implosion of the poorly regulated world economy.
Putin is a smart operator.
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Post by Fogg on Feb 20, 2022 13:23:23 GMT 12
Putin is not going to invade the Ukraine. If he was he would have done it by now. What he is doing is making millions of dollars an hour and harming the west/ worlds economies. This movement of troops is designed to drive up oil and gas prices, rattle the stock market and generally disrupt the economies of the world. Meanwhile backs in Russia Putin has looked at their big pipeline, that feeds millions of Kg/L's of Gas to Europe and said Spasibo! (that's thankyou in Russian) There will be no invasion other than the internal implosion of the poorly regulated world economy. Putin is a smart operator. Agree totally. He’s super smart. I’ve been saying this for years. The rest of the world think he’s a politician. They overlook his background as the head of the Russian intelligences services. He’s a v accomplished spy and knows how manipulate the situation to create the right optics & outcome. I actually admire him in a funny sort of way and love the way he runs rings around the bumbling duo of Boris & Biden. |
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Post by GO30 on Feb 20, 2022 18:30:58 GMT 12
Have to agree with all that Fogg, I've thought exactly the same.
You don't last in his position in a country like that without being very clever.
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Post by eri on Feb 20, 2022 20:45:05 GMT 12
he and russia lose in the long run
as talented russians continue to emigrate for a better future
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 21:05:47 GMT 12
he and russia lose in the long run as talented russians continue to emigrate for a better future emigrate!?... Is that immigrate via Emirates 😜 |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2022 21:07:33 GMT 12
he and russia lose in the long run as talented russians continue to emigrate for a better future emigrate!?... Is that immigrate via Emirates 😜 but yes you are correct to a certain level. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 17:36:08 GMT 12
Looks like the security and intelligence services understood Putin pretty well
Media has been reporting this correctly for a very long time now.
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Post by fish on Feb 24, 2022 19:03:11 GMT 12
Can anyone explain what is actually going on there, from a geo-political point of view?
I'm at a loss to understand why Vlad wants to start a war, and what the actual background is. The msm aren't fill in on the 'why' bit, just the 'all Russians are crazy' narrative.
I understand Ukraine is the 'bread basket' of Europe, so is probably worth stealing as a strategic asset. Though I thought that sort of old fashioned colonist war thing went out a century and a half ago. Maybe a century ago if you count the British in Mesopotamia.
Vlad has been going on about genocide in eastern Ukraine, which is always a good pretext for an invasion. Maybe the locals have been trying to get rid of all the Russian influence in their nieghbourhoods? There has been conflict there for 8 years now. There was that thing (about 8 years ago) where the Ukrianian president was so corrupt there was a general uprising, and possibly some sort of coupe, and he was out of there. He was heavily Russian backed. It sounds like there is a mix of cultural identification, with most of Ukraine pivoting to the west (probably because it is more wealthy) but the eastern states still have strong links with Russia, and apparently identify as Russian.
The current Ukrainian President has certainly pivoted to the West, and seems to be chummy with Biden, which is odd, Ukraine being no where near the US. Maybe Vlad is feeling like a jilted lover, and was used to having them cosy up to him?
Taking a wider view, Vlad has Europe by the balls, in that he supplies a third of their gas. What with the whole covid thing, gas production was cut in the downturn, now demand has shot up, along with the price, supply has staid tight, and Vlad is creaming it. Gas for house heating has gone up something like 200% in the UK this year. Industry is hemorrhaging $$$ and even the UK gas retailers have been going bust left right and centre.
So if sanctions means Europe can't by ruskie gas, they are going to have major supply shortages, and the price is going to go into orbit.
So is Vlad trying to do a bit of old fashioned patch pissing and wanting to nick his neighbours missus, or is this a grander strategic scheme to upset the current world order and make Russia an economic kingpin?
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Post by ComfortZone on Feb 24, 2022 19:38:48 GMT 12
Can anyone explain what is actually going on there, from a geo-political point of view? So is Vlad trying to do a bit of old fashioned patch pissing and wanting to nick his neighbours missus, or is this a grander strategic scheme to upset the current world order and make Russia an economic kingpin? I read an article a few weeks ago which has another view on the reasons for Putin's strategy, don't have a link so can only summarise. By the way this will upset any climate catatrophists here so don't read any further if you are one. There are alot of indications Earth is heading into a cooling phase, maybe even a mini ice age. Also remember that of all the Climate models the IPCC refers to, the only one that has shown in reliability to replicate reality is the Russian model. The article suggested that there are indications that the Russians believe their Arctic ports may remain icebound for 12 months of the year due to this looming cooling and hence Putin wants to ensure they retain sea access should this happen. Now if this view has legs then there is another little problem of concern - the Straits of Bosphorus which is the only way out and is of course Turkish territory. Turkey's President Erdogan is pushing a plan to build a $20B 45km canal - Canal Istanbul - maybe there is a connection here? We never really know what is going on in the world of geopolitics |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 19:55:03 GMT 12
Because Russia wants to keep a buffer between them and the EU.
If Ukraine joins NATO as the west is pushing for then that puts NATO on the Russian border.
Russia wants to keep its buffer states loyal to Russia.
Russias worst nightmare is these Eastern European States falling into EU loyalty or worse US loyalty.
Russia does not want the West on its doorstep.
This is why the US fought so hard during the cold War to keep dictators in power in central and south America. Its about having areas of influence.
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Post by fish on Feb 24, 2022 20:14:46 GMT 12
Can anyone explain what is actually going on there, from a geo-political point of view? So is Vlad trying to do a bit of old fashioned patch pissing and wanting to nick his neighbours missus, or is this a grander strategic scheme to upset the current world order and make Russia an economic kingpin? I read an article a few weeks ago which has another view on the reasons for Putin's strategy, don't have a link so can only summarise. By the way this will upset any climate catatrophists here so don't read any further if you are one. There are alot of indications Earth is heading into a cooling phase, maybe even a mini ice age. Also remember that of all the Climate models the IPCC refers to, the only one that has shown in reliability to replicate reality is the Russian model. The article suggested that there are indications that the Russians believe their Arctic ports may remain icebound for 12 months of the year due to this looming cooling and hence Putin wants to ensure they retain sea access should this happen. Now if this view has legs then there is another little problem of concern - the Straits of Bosphorus which is the only way out and is of course Turkish territory. Turkey's President Erdogan is pushing a plan to build a $20B 45km canal - Canal Istanbul - maybe there is a connection here? We never really know what is going on in the world of geopolitics Strweth CZ, I'm not sure if I can handle that. The earth is cooling and not warming, and that is why there is a war in Europe. My head hurts... I am aware of Erdogan's plan to build a big fuck off canal, parallel to an existing waterway, and am bemused at that. Loosing the Northern sea ports would be a problem for the Ruskies. But I thought the NE & NW passages were just starting to fire up as trade routes, i.e. global warming is opening everything up? I'm going to go with an old USSR theory based on the Chernobyl Netflix series. There is such oppressive state control in all walks of life, and everyone must honor the motherland, to the point it is the greatest honor to sacrifice yourself for it. Therefore, the climate modellers must make up numbers that make Russia look the best. This was the same for nuclear reactor designs. All authorities in Russia said their model of reactor could not explode. But it could. The KGB ensured that there were no academic papers or any academic views that may detract from Russia's reputation. Hence anyone that showed any evidence of flaws in the reactor design 'disappeared'. Everyone thought Russia's nuclear tech was the best in the world (in Russia), where in reality any informed debate or dissenting views were absent, and it had fatal flaws in it. So Russia may well think there models are the best, and the earth is cooling. And they are making geopolitical decisions based on that. History has shown they have a massive blindspot for state sponsored confirmation bias. PS, I really don't want to get into discussing climate change, that is one topic that makes my head explode. I can vaguely understand not wanting a massive strategic military alliance on the doorstep. But then I can't follow why you would start a war to avoid a war. I could understand that 'right here, right now,' its a good time to start one though. Economies are in a state of flux, there is a global pandemic, the UK is in decline as a world leader, the US is wracked with political division, Europe is dependent on Russian gas, something about the seasons and how muddy the ground is in Ukraine for moving trucks & tanks, oh, and Russia are the president of the UN Security Council this month ... mwahahaha |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 20:32:02 GMT 12
And Taiwan will be next.
As soon as the US and the rest of the West start getting tied up in knots dealing with Ukraine, China will hit Taiwan.
The West and it's people don't have the appetite or the finances to deal with two wars let alone one.
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Post by Fogg on Feb 24, 2022 20:37:49 GMT 12
Gosh I was so wrong about Putin.
I was hoping it was more sabre-rattling to strengthen his negotiating position to seek a guarantee that Ukraine would never be allowed to join NATO.
But when the rest of world said they couldn’t provide that guarantee because Ukraine is free to choose its owns allies, then I guess that was the trigger for Putin.
I wish I had been right.
I will hereby fire myself from commenting on international geopolitics.
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Post by em on Feb 25, 2022 7:05:05 GMT 12
Gosh I was so wrong about Putin. I was hoping it was more sabre-rattling to strengthen his negotiating position to seek a guarantee that Ukraine would never be allowed to join NATO. But when the rest of world said they couldn’t provide that guarantee because Ukraine is free to choose its owns allies, then I guess that was the trigger for Putin. I wish I had been right. I will hereby fire myself from commenting on international geopolitics. And uncle Neville was wrong about the Fuhrer . Watched the footage the other night (WW2 in colour) of the speech Neville gave when he hopped off the plane from Berlin and waved the Non invasion pact around over his head . Putin has just followed in AHs footsteps |
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Post by armchairadmiral on Feb 25, 2022 7:23:59 GMT 12
It's the internet and someone (Fogg) confessed to being WRONG. What's the world coming to? Can't see this going anywhere but downhill for Putin. Tragedy for those involved doing the war thing. If someone would shoot Putin that might be a quick solution ?
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