|
|
Post by GO30 on Sept 21, 2022 19:56:55 GMT 12
have not noticed any of the big old ones around Westhaven flowering yet. They tend to be a little later than most from my observations. But when they do go off they really go off, they are stunning.
Looking forward to average rainfall NZ wide but with some redistribution to where it falls over the next wee while. We'll see more wet Akl - North than usual they reckon.
Temps to be a very warm average.
All depends on El Nino, will it strengthen towards usual or stay a bit on the limp side? Strangely they can identify a small individual weather event as positively being due to CC but they still don't know why El Nino works.
|
|
|
|
Post by sabre on Sept 21, 2022 20:17:40 GMT 12
Niwa's long term rain forcasts tend to be wrong very near 100% of the time.
|
|
|
|
Post by fish on Sept 21, 2022 20:50:24 GMT 12
Niwa's long term rain forcasts tend to be wrong very near 100% of the time. Now I've got my head around how they present / represent their forecast probabilities, I've been surprisingly impressed with how good their last two climate outlooks were. The present probabilities, not absolutes, which is interesting. Sometimes it can look about as accurate as astrology star signs (mainly self fulfilling prophecies), but I have seen actually climate patterns recently that line up with what they were talking about. |
|
|
|
Post by fish on Sept 21, 2022 20:53:59 GMT 12
The tree that started this whole thread is just outside my Osteo. Apparently it has been flowering hard out since June. I'm significantly confused. Perhaps it is one of those Tahitian ones? It looks like a regular Pohutukawa, tall (in the power lines) although the trunks don't look as chunky and twisted as normal. They are a little thinner and straighter. But the leaves, flowers etc are fully Pohutukawa.
On the same day I saw that one, I noticed a hedge style bush in flower as well. I haven't seen any big trees in full flower yet, other than that one random one.
|
|
|
|
Post by sabre on Sept 21, 2022 21:27:52 GMT 12
Niwa's long term rain forcasts tend to be wrong very near 100% of the time. Now I've got my head around how they present / represent their forecast probabilities, I've been surprisingly impressed with how good their last two climate outlooks were. The present probabilities, not absolutes, which is interesting. Sometimes it can look about as accurate as astrology star signs (mainly self fulfilling prophecies), but I have seen actually climate patterns recently that line up with what they were talking about. Maybe they have improved since I last payed attention to what they were saying. There was about 5 years on the trot that their rainfall forecasts were completely wrong so I started ignoring them. As a farmer I certainly wouldn't make any decisions based on their predictions. |
|
|
|
Post by sabre on Sept 21, 2022 21:31:35 GMT 12
I have noticed Rewarewa well in flower for a while now. A quick google suggests this is supposed to happen Oct-Dec. It has certainly been a mild winter but I'm not complaining
|
|
|
|
Post by sabre on Sept 21, 2022 21:33:05 GMT 12
No Cuckoos yet though. They are due in about 10 days..
|
|
|
|
Post by em on Sept 22, 2022 7:01:14 GMT 12
Now I've got my head around how they present / represent their forecast probabilities, I've been surprisingly impressed with how good their last two climate outlooks were. The present probabilities, not absolutes, which is interesting. Sometimes it can look about as accurate as astrology star signs (mainly self fulfilling prophecies), but I have seen actually climate patterns recently that line up with what they were talking about. Maybe they have improved since I last payed attention to what they were saying. There was about 5 years on the trot that their rainfall forecasts were completely wrong so I started ignoring them. As a farmer I certainly wouldn't make any decisions based on |
|
|
|
Post by em on Sept 22, 2022 7:07:00 GMT 12
The tree that started this whole thread is just outside my Osteo. Apparently it has been flowering hard out since June. I'm significantly confused. Perhaps it is one of those Tahitian ones? It looks like a regular Pohutukawa, tall (in the power lines) although the trunks don't look as chunky and twisted as normal. They are a little thinner and straighter. But the leaves, flowers etc are fully Pohutukawa. On the same day I saw that one, I noticed a hedge style bush in flower as well. I haven't seen any big trees in full flower yet, other than that one random one. Well in that case it may be a kermadecensis they are fairly rare . There’s only one nurseryman I know of that has a permit to gather seed from the offshore islands . If you are ever driving through matapouri his nursery “tawapou” is well worth a gander . They have plants from all the islands and it’s quite amazing how different nikaus or Kawa kawa etc can differ between islands |
|
