Weather

Found Ken Ring's Prediction on FB. Certainly very emotive and alarmist.

Ken Ring - Long Range Forecaster
December 6 at 12:11 PM ·
Hold onto your hats
The frequent reader will recall our prediction in March 2022 that the only ex-tropical cyclone for the year would arrive on a certain date, bringing flooding rains to the country, and as such it would be the heaviest rain of the year. It was an event I had warned about for almost a year beforehand and it arrived on cue. Some places received over 100 mm in one day. Nobody disputes the accuracy. and there has not been as much rain in a single day since. Well, that day is coming again.
Bear with me now as we describe what could be a rough ride in the next few weeks. Indications are that nature is about to deliver two knockout blows to farmers; two multi-hazards for NZ, at the end of this month, December 2022 and around mid-January 2023.
You can find the first event on p304 of the 2022 NZ Weather Almanac. It is expected to arrive around the end of December 2022. If you are on holiday, especially with little ones, do remember to pack some warm clothing. It may take the form of a low-pressure system south of the Chathams, resulting in an outbreak of very cold air from near the Antarctic ice-sheet. Hail, lightning and thunderstorms may lash many parts of the country. Hail-damaged apple crops, may reduce export earnings for orchardists. If you know any of these affected folk, please warn them so they can take steps to reduce their losses. The hapless metservice, and NIWA (No Idea Whats Ahead) cannot be relied on to prepare them, otherwise CD would have arrangements already in place. The warning has been in black and white print hidden all year in the almanac on p304, so it is hardly unexpected.
Here is a rundown of what may occur. In Northland, there may be hail at Waitawa Hill. Severe hail may be experienced in areas around Waitawa on or near 29 December 2022. Crops and gardens may be damaged. In Auckland, the city may be pelted by damaging hail and rain for two days. Hail may blanket Auckland’s Southern Motorway on one of the three mornings. At Kumeu, plums and apples may be damaged. Around Henderson Valley, or other sheltered areas, temperatures may plunge to below 10°. Hailstones may ruin fruit, which may suffer the most. Wairarapa and Waikato farmers stand to lose profits from pipfruit. At some places, the hail may be mistaken for snow and look like ski fields. In Hawkes Bay, there may be damaging hailstones also that may wreck fruit. In Wellington, Cook Strait ferries may be delayed by heavy swells, possibly up to around 8m. In the North Island, strawberry crops are dangered, causing prices to nearly double. Snow and ice may fall in the Central North Island, dusting the Desert Rd, central mountains and Kaimanawa Ranges.
In Tasman/Nelson, it is a similar story. The hail may ruin fruit in the fruit-growing areas west of Nelson (Tasman and Mariri). Most crops may be affected, especially apples. All areas, from Golden Bay, through Riwaka, Waimea Plains and along the Richmond foothills to Atawhai may be affected. In Canterbury, large hailstones could cause damage in South Canterbury. And in Otago, Coronet Peak may receive a layer of snow. In the South Island, snow and ice may fall to 600m in several places.
Note that this is a freak event, and then again on or near to 11-16 January 2023 when heavy rain may cause extensive flooding. This comes a week before very high tides and will be the effect of the closest perigee for the year about a week later. It will be, once again, our heaviest rain event for the year for some. The deluge may affect Manawatu-Wanganui, Wellington, Tasman-Nelson and Otago. The hardest area hit may be Wellington where hundreds of people may have to be evacuated.
It is NOT a sign of climate change or a reason to panic. As for the sudden weather, both events are associated with back-to-back lunar equinoxes, so they will very quickly be over. There may also be earthquake activity. Please prepare well, and cover, remove or prematurely harvest crops. Is it not better to wisely invest in early prevention? What is there to lose?