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Jan 19, 2024 9:43:14 GMT 12
Post by fish on Jan 19, 2024 9:43:14 GMT 12
Hate to say it but I am paying more and more attention to what Ken Ring has to say. He has been predicting a large ex tc in early Feb since at least December. When the "official" forecasters were bleating on about a "long hot dry summer" he also called bs. He seems to be right more than wrong so I'm certainly starting to take note of what he says. I'm also looking for a ride north anytime from Sunday and hope to be in the far north by the end of next week. I got Ken Ring's books for 2016 & 2017, but couldn't really make sense of them. I've no problem with him, I just decided not to use him for forecasting. Was disappointed with the amount of shit he got post Chch EQ. Media needed a villain on that front. I do firmly believe there are patterns to the weather that are influenced by the heavenly bodies. The moon in particular. We often get a storm or a dose of bad weather 1 or 2 days after the full moon. Not always of course. None of these things are set in stone or a certainty, but if you add them into the mix of old-skool world watching -watching the clouds, the shape of the swell, getting swell in otherwise calm settled weather means a big storm over the horizon, some of the old sayings, "clear sky at night, sailors delight" etc you start to develop a better understanding. Interestingly, I recon it is really hard to get in tune with the natural environment if you use modern forecasts. I wasn't allowed to wear a watch for work for a while and could tell the time to within 30mins by the sun. Now I wear a watch I have to rely on it. And the moon is a funny thing. Has a visible effect on tides, hugely influences fishing, impacts peoples moods etc, but modern science can't explain gravity. They can measure and quantify it, but can't explain it... That would be the same modern science that said the jab is both safe and effective... |
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Weather
Jan 19, 2024 10:59:12 GMT 12
Post by em on Jan 19, 2024 10:59:12 GMT 12
At the moment windy has that system camping over North Queensland for days and days
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Weather
Jan 19, 2024 11:54:20 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by sabre on Jan 19, 2024 11:54:20 GMT 12
Hate to say it but I am paying more and more attention to what Ken Ring has to say. He has been predicting a large ex tc in early Feb since at least December. When the "official" forecasters were bleating on about a "long hot dry summer" he also called bs. He seems to be right more than wrong so I'm certainly starting to take note of what he says. I'm also looking for a ride north anytime from Sunday and hope to be in the far north by the end of next week. I got Ken Ring's books for 2016 & 2017, but couldn't really make sense of them. I've no problem with him, I just decided not to use him for forecasting. Was disappointed with the amount of shit he got post Chch EQ. Media needed a villain on that front. I do firmly believe there are patterns to the weather that are influenced by the heavenly bodies. The moon in particular. We often get a storm or a dose of bad weather 1 or 2 days after the full moon. Not always of course. None of these things are set in stone or a certainty, but if you add them into the mix of old-skool world watching -watching the clouds, the shape of the swell, getting swell in otherwise calm settled weather means a big storm over the horizon, some of the old sayings, "clear sky at night, sailors delight" etc you start to develop a better understanding. Interestingly, I recon it is really hard to get in tune with the natural environment if you use modern forecasts. I wasn't allowed to wear a watch for work for a while and could tell the time to within 30mins by the sun. Now I wear a watch I have to rely on it. And the moon is a funny thing. Has a visible effect on tides, hugely influences fishing, impacts peoples moods etc, but modern science can't explain gravity. They can measure and quantify it, but can't explain it... That would be the same modern science that said the jab is both safe and effective... imo the guy is a few sandwiches short of a picnic but while I am not planning my life around his forecasts I am certainly taking note of what he says. His seasonal outlooks appear to be far more accurate than Niwas. He has been predicted an ex tc early Feb for awhile and reckons heavy rain for the BoP around the 4th or 5th so will wait and see. Currently raining here and the farm has lots of lush and lovely feed which is exactly the opposite of Niwas prediction and bang on with Kens prediction. |
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Weather
Jan 19, 2024 12:15:07 GMT 12
Post by fish on Jan 19, 2024 12:15:07 GMT 12
I got Ken Ring's books for 2016 & 2017, but couldn't really make sense of them. I've no problem with him, I just decided not to use him for forecasting. Was disappointed with the amount of shit he got post Chch EQ. Media needed a villain on that front. I do firmly believe there are patterns to the weather that are influenced by the heavenly bodies. The moon in particular. We often get a storm or a dose of bad weather 1 or 2 days after the full moon. Not always of course. None of these things are set in stone or a certainty, but if you add them into the mix of old-skool world watching -watching the clouds, the shape of the swell, getting swell in otherwise calm settled weather means a big storm over the horizon, some of the old sayings, "clear sky at night, sailors delight" etc you start to develop a better understanding. Interestingly, I recon it is really hard to get in tune with the natural environment if you use modern forecasts. I wasn't allowed to wear a watch for work for a while and could tell the time to within 30mins by the sun. Now I wear a watch I have to rely on it. And the moon is a funny thing. Has a visible effect on tides, hugely influences fishing, impacts peoples moods etc, but modern science can't explain gravity. They can measure and quantify it, but can't explain it... That would be the same modern science that said the jab is both safe and effective... imo the guy is a few sandwiches short of a picnic but while I am not planning my life around his forecasts I am certainly taking note of what he says. His seasonal outlooks appear to be far more accurate than Niwas. He has been predicted an ex tc early Feb for awhile and reckons heavy rain for the BoP around the 4th or 5th so will wait and see. Currently raining here and the farm has lots of lush and lovely feed which is exactly the opposite of Niwas prediction and bang on with Kens prediction. Can you look at his seasonal predictions without buying the book? Some of the language can be a bit horoscope style, I got confused when he was forecasting 'serene' weather. Wasn't sure if that was dead calm blocking high, fog, still, or some other climatic phenomenon. On Niwa, I'm dead keen to know when this forecast El Nino is going to start. We've got easterlies and humidity for over a week here in Whangaparaoa. I was expecting SW and dry. It's raining today. The humidity is getting on my tits, been running the aircon overnight for a while, and am running through the day now. I'm starting to get flashbacks to last summer, the one that got washed out. Had about 2 weeks of good cruising weather, as I expected not long after New Years, and now its back to marginal and average. |
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Weather
Jan 19, 2024 12:23:13 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by sabre on Jan 19, 2024 12:23:13 GMT 12
imo the guy is a few sandwiches short of a picnic but while I am not planning my life around his forecasts I am certainly taking note of what he says. His seasonal outlooks appear to be far more accurate than Niwas. He has been predicted an ex tc early Feb for awhile and reckons heavy rain for the BoP around the 4th or 5th so will wait and see. Currently raining here and the farm has lots of lush and lovely feed which is exactly the opposite of Niwas prediction and bang on with Kens prediction. Can you look at his seasonal predictions without buying the book? Some of the language can be a bit horoscope style, I got confused when he was forecasting 'serene' weather. Wasn't sure if that was dead calm blocking high, fog, still, or some other climatic phenomenon. On Niwa, I'm dead keen to know when this forecast El Nino is going to start. We've got easterlies and humidity for over a week here in Whangaparaoa. I was expecting SW and dry. It's raining today. The humidity is getting on my tits, been running the aircon overnight for a while, and am running through the day now. I'm starting to get flashbacks to last summer, the one that got washed out. Had about 2 weeks of good cruising weather, as I expected not long after New Years, and now its back to marginal and average. I just follow him on FB so all I have seen has come through there. He is certainly far from perfect. Last year he played down the severity of Gabrielle and then made a real dick of himself making excuses instead of saying woops got that wrong. Any hope of a long hot summer is gone imo. Hopefully some settled weather from the second week of Feb but who knows. |
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Weather
Jan 19, 2024 13:56:47 GMT 12
Post by DuckMaster on Jan 19, 2024 13:56:47 GMT 12
Can you look at his seasonal predictions without buying the book? Some of the language can be a bit horoscope style, I got confused when he was forecasting 'serene' weather. Wasn't sure if that was dead calm blocking high, fog, still, or some other climatic phenomenon. On Niwa, I'm dead keen to know when this forecast El Nino is going to start. We've got easterlies and humidity for over a week here in Whangaparaoa. I was expecting SW and dry. It's raining today. The humidity is getting on my tits, been running the aircon overnight for a while, and am running through the day now. I'm starting to get flashbacks to last summer, the one that got washed out. Had about 2 weeks of good cruising weather, as I expected not long after New Years, and now its back to marginal and average. I just follow him on FB so all I have seen has come through there. He is certainly far from perfect. Last year he played down the severity of Gabrielle and then made a real dick of himself making excuses instead of saying woops got that wrong. Any hope of a long hot summer is gone imo. Hopefully some settled weather from the second week of Feb but who knows. Urgh? Really...  This NE isn't going to make for a comfortable bay week delivery. |
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Post by ComfortZone on Jan 19, 2024 16:51:08 GMT 12
Just in case we end up in the same bay can you let me know your wifi password CZ? PM if you don't want any of these bludgers to know it... If you find us I am sure a bottle of Sav Blanc will liberate the password  |
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Weather
Jan 19, 2024 18:06:32 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by sabre on Jan 19, 2024 18:06:32 GMT 12
Just in case we end up in the same bay can you let me know your wifi password CZ? PM if you don't want any of these bludgers to know it... If you find us I am sure a bottle of Sav Blanc will liberate the password Not much of that fancy stuff on my boat but I do have a few litres of various rums. Apparently friends and family think I am an alcholic based on the "provisions" they have gifted me. |
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Weather
Jan 19, 2024 21:10:09 GMT 12
Post by em on Jan 19, 2024 21:10:09 GMT 12
I just follow him on FB so all I have seen has come through there. He is certainly far from perfect. Last year he played down the severity of Gabrielle and then made a real dick of himself making excuses instead of saying woops got that wrong. Any hope of a long hot summer is gone imo. Hopefully some settled weather from the second week of Feb but who knows. Urgh? Really... This NE isn't going to make for a comfortable bay week delivery. Yep will be smacking into it tomorrow morning looking over our shoulders for the SE change |
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dp
Full Member
Posts: 135
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Post by dp on Jan 20, 2024 7:35:23 GMT 12
I just follow him on FB so all I have seen has come through there. He is certainly far from perfect. Last year he played down the severity of Gabrielle and then made a real dick of himself making excuses instead of saying woops got that wrong. Any hope of a long hot summer is gone imo. Hopefully some settled weather from the second week of Feb but who knows. Urgh? Really... This NE isn't going to make for a comfortable bay week delivery. I'm expecting an easy passage over the Kopu Hikuai with the new bridge, some traffic around auckland, possible hassels around the Bryderwyns. |
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Weather
Jan 21, 2024 9:04:53 GMT 12
via mobile
fish likes this
Post by dutyfree on Jan 21, 2024 9:04:53 GMT 12
Well the whole weekends weather forecasting accuracy has been crap. MetService, PW and Windy. Made a call not to head out so did other stuff like 9km walk in hunua.
Missed a good weekend of boating.
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Post by Fogg on Jan 21, 2024 11:38:31 GMT 12
Yes it’s been far better than forecast. I left the family inshore and came out for a few days solo time. It’s been beautiful. Noises yesterday:   Tiri today for a swim then onto Kawau later:  |
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Weather
Jan 21, 2024 17:56:02 GMT 12
Post by GO30 on Jan 21, 2024 17:56:02 GMT 12
Well the whole weekends weather forecasting accuracy has been crap. MetService, PW and Windy. Made a call not to head out so did other stuff like 9km walk in hunua. Missed a good weekend of boating. God in her infinite wisdom did not make motorbikes so we could go for a walk dude, stop fiddling with nature 
Only got 37.8 yesterday, a bit warm in the bush trying to shake out 3 bloody Houdinis (failed) but otherwise it was OK. The real only 2 bad days were late last week, topped out at 41 degrees, that was a bit too warm. Lowest since Xmas is 14 degrees. Currently 27.8 and I see wet coming in from the east, looks like quite a bit of it as well.
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Weather
Jan 21, 2024 18:46:24 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by Fogg on Jan 21, 2024 18:46:24 GMT 12
NZ weather is not the problem.
NZ weather-forecasting is the problem.
It’s v hard to plan anything with so much uncertainty.
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Weather
Jan 21, 2024 19:55:37 GMT 12
Post by Cantab on Jan 21, 2024 19:55:37 GMT 12
I've found this summer it has been worth it to "go anyway" have had far better weather than expected mixed with a little bit of not so nice. Glad I didn't stay at home more than a few times. The water temperature is phenomenal. Only been home for a few nights since Christmas.
Been watching the forecast for Bay Week flip every day for the last week, strength direction rain sun all changing daily.
I really wonder if the current weather is so unusual that the forecast models have nothing to match it to and hence the big swings, the weather patterns are very active too so uncertainty in their development seems reasonable.
I don't recall weather like this and last summer in my time up North.
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