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Post by GO30 on Mar 21, 2024 10:11:42 GMT 12
With the previous Govt leaving NZ in a confirmed recession, just as Helen/Cullen also did, and with more companies and stats saying the last few months is looking shit house so I'm fully expecting the first 1/4 24 to also be a negative,
Is it time to put a brake on tax cuts? Add no more taxes but hold off dropping any until some shit is sorted and the economy back on it's feet?
Anyone here vote with cuts as input to their voting choice that would be OK if they were held off a bit or would you lose your shit if they don't happen?
I did not vote with tax cuts as any input to my decision. I was a bit 50/50 around them but are swinging towards 'Is now the right time for them?, I'm not too sure it is'
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Post by fish on Mar 21, 2024 10:33:20 GMT 12
Record immigration, and the economy shrinks.
Go figure.
At a macro-economic level, tax cuts are the same as reducing the OCR. Lowering either gives people more money to spend. The OCR is high cause govt spending blew inflation out. Govt spending has done a Crazy Ivan, so that is no longer an issue. Inflation is falling. All the 'experts' argue how far and how fast.
My take is that if the govt hand out tax cuts, that will stimulate the economy to a point that the RB will not lower the OCR a proportionate amount. Having an Auckland sized mortgage, receiving a tax cut looks like a zero sum game to me. A tax cut would be very nice, but so would lower mortgage rates. I'd probably save more if mortgage rates went lower.
There is a peripheral issue of state funded services. Police / Justice is a hot topic at the moment. School buildings not safe for kids to be in, etc. I'm still tyring to work out what the feck is going on with the Ministry for Disable Persons. Ran out of money mid-way through the financial year, announce on Facebook they are cutting services (maybe they actually sacked all their comms specialists and it was just the receptionist left to announce funding cuts to our societies most venerable via social media).
Nekminnute, the Minister is saying it was a clusterfuck, oh, and the Finance Minister is getting EVERYONE in for a please explain, why have you ran out of money mid-year? Why can't you organise a root in a whore house, why did you not raise these issues, and I bet the major question, why the fuck are you making me (Nicola Willis / National led govt) look bad?
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Post by Cantab on Mar 21, 2024 12:16:48 GMT 12
Some of these departments dealing with people of special needs are obscenely funded. Usually between 50 to 200k per client. Remember special needs kids in school? There was enough money to employ a full time caregiver for each problem kid. Most kids got nothing, schools going nuts over it. Cindy forked out a huge sum of money for the ministry to employ more managers, not a single extra helper in the school.
The client base is pretty well defined. They have huge highly paid staff numbers inhabiting offices in Wellington and Auckland. Not so many make it to the coalface.
How do you fix it? Maybe running out of money and sacking staff, starting from the top wouldn't be so bad.
Nearly all ministries have had massive increases in staff over the past few years, nearly all have produced less service and success in their areas of responsibility. Giving them more money isn't going to fix anything.
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Post by GO30 on Mar 23, 2024 11:26:27 GMT 12
They seem keen on driving the cuts thru which after last weeks numbers nowmay not be such a bad idea. The economy is stopping quick so some tax cut cash pushed back in may soften the landing. They are also keen to try and do as much as they promised which is rather unique these days, but we've seen trimming/tweaking and I suspect we'll see more.
But that aside I'm not too sure if the time is right for cuts.
That is not to say this waste/excess staffing reduction binge is bad. Its good to see someone look at both sides of the ledger for a change.
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Post by fish on Mar 23, 2024 12:01:08 GMT 12
They seem keen on driving the cuts thru which after last weeks numbers nowmay not be such a bad idea. The economy is stopping quick so some tax cut cash pushed back in may soften the landing. They are also keen to try and do as much as they promised which is rather unique these days, but we've seen trimming/tweaking and I suspect we'll see more. But that aside I'm not too sure if the time is right for cuts. That is not to say this waste/excess staffing reduction binge is bad. Its good to see someone look at both sides of the ledger for a change. In all the media saying 200 from MBI, 400 from MPI, none of the articles have said what the total head count is at any of those Ministries. Some articles, if you read far enough, say how much the head count increased under Labour. In all cases, the reductions are a fraction of what the increase was. Oh, and one story I read let slip that of the 400 positions to go, 40% are actually vacancies... |
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Post by harrytom on Mar 23, 2024 12:13:41 GMT 12
Never mind the bloody tax cut or not.
Govt needs to sort Housing NZ and Social welfare.
2 houses across the road,identical,1 private and the other leased by Housing NZ. Private rental $650pw fuck knows what the HNZ tenant pays. HNZ tenant Grandmother looking after 4 off daughters children under 12 and boasts about her bene worth $80k,maggot. Daughter supposedly lives elsewhere with 2 other children,just to claim additional benefit. so we have tax payer paying rent for 2 adults 6 children and maybe $140k? benefit.
Why the fuck am I working.
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Post by eri on Mar 23, 2024 14:17:10 GMT 12
you are working
so you can pay tax
and support the growth of welfare dependency in nz
hope you don't expect a pension
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Post by harrytom on Mar 23, 2024 16:01:07 GMT 12
you are working so you can pay tax and support the growth of welfare dependency in nz hope you don't expect a pensionChecked my Kiwi saver and going along nicely,low risk investment,Increased from the 4% to 8%% 5 yrs ago should do 10% but those extra $$ will hurt. Mind you never noticed the 10% we were paying Aussie.Unfortunatly cashed in not long after leaving OZ |
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Post by GO30 on Mar 23, 2024 18:53:04 GMT 12
Never mind the bloody tax cut or not. Govt needs to sort Housing NZ and Social welfare. Yeap 100% But they won't because they do not have the balls to stand up to a minority of the public won't let them. I'm told some people prefer giving money to millionaires rather than trying to help those living in cars. |
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Post by DuckMaster on Mar 23, 2024 21:21:46 GMT 12
Never mind the bloody tax cut or not. Govt needs to sort Housing NZ and Social welfare. Yeap 100% But they won't because they do not have the balls to stand up to a minority of the public won't let them. I'm told some people prefer giving money to millionaires rather than trying to help those living in cars. The so called housing crisis is a remarkably easy problem to solve. Just up the interest rate on investment properties by 20% and watch the property investors run for the hills. Exactly the same happened in the 50s/60s/70s with the massive interest increases. Governments the world over called it the end of landlordism. Governments claimed that residential property would never again be a viable investment. Then in the 80s and onwards governments undid all the good work that got rid of landlord's and made it an investment platform. As long as people can make money from residential property and it remains a source of income the housing crisis will never end. Some how the government now live in this bullshit utopia that building more houses is going to solve the problem. We don't have a supply issue. We have a cost issue. |
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Post by eri on Mar 24, 2024 6:11:57 GMT 12
the cost of a new house, in a new + distant suburb
directly effects what people will pay for an old house, in an old and central suburb
would you rather pay a million for a new 4 bed in pokeno
or an old 3 bed in ponsonby?
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Post by GO30 on Mar 24, 2024 6:58:58 GMT 12
Yeap 100% But they won't because they do not have the balls to stand up to a minority of the public won't let them. I'm told some people prefer giving money to millionaires rather than trying to help those living in cars. The so called housing crisis is a remarkably easy problem to solve. Just up the interest rate on investment properties by 20% and watch the property investors run for the hills. Exactly the same happened in the 50s/60s/70s with the massive interest increases. Governments the world over called it the end of landlordism. Governments claimed that residential property would never again be a viable investment. Then in the 80s and onwards governments undid all the good work that got rid of landlord's and made it an investment platform. As long as people can make money from residential property and it remains a source of income the housing crisis will never end. Some how the government now live in this bullshit utopia that building more houses is going to solve the problem. We don't have a supply issue. We have a cost issue. No argument there bar maybe in how we make it less bullshit. There will ALWAYS be a need for landlords who always also tend to be investors, but there is no need to have ridiculous returns. Our rural existence was paid for by that ridiculousness with a place, we rented to students for about 20% of the market rate on the proviso none took a loan out to pay for accommodation while studying. That place went up 75K a year, none was our doing and the 2 big very noticeable jumps were due to a council decision which added 50K over night and the other a bunch of insecure tossers who added another 50K when they decided it was the best street for the mentally retarded who value coin and status over common sense. That is why a capital gains tax is fraught with danger, values can easily be manipulated by the very beneficiaries of the tax at the expense of the home owner.
So no adding 20%, the only people who will pay are the renters just like they are paying after the last Govt decided to add a nice big tax onto landlords.
What needs to happen, but I doubt it will due to vested interests - Close BRANZ or whatever name it goes under these days,the Govt Dept that OK what can be used in building. Like Pharmac all they are doing has already been done why waste time and coin replicating it. BRANZ is directly responsible for the leaky house and rotting timber debarkle, to name only 2 of their fuck ups we're all paying for. Doing this will decrease market manipulation by the Govts mates, open options and reduce costs reasonably quickly.
Open areas to development and stop the silly restrictions. That will reduce the cost of land and can be done reasonably fast.
Take a machine gun to the RMA, it is horrendously costly and for minimal benefit.
Can all the racist approval bullshit, that again is costly for no benefit bar a few corrupt pockets.
Bring in a well resourced team that is tasked with watching any person/organisation who rents places, including KO. Sensible minimum standards must be enforced.
Limit rent increases to the CPI or close too, maybe CPI plus 2% sort of thing. That way investors still get a return but as it is generally a very safe investment they don't get crazy returns.
Do that and the price of housing will drop and certainly not increase at the stupid rate it currently is.
And correctly called, there is no housing crisis. We're in the market at the moment for 1st home buyer and the range of very nice tidy places at very reasonable pricing, by NZ standard, is large. Sure not on Ponsonby Road but only the thick would want to live in a situation that crappy so they can pay for their stupidity.
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