Post by ComfortZone on Aug 13, 2024 17:21:11 GMT 12
NZ's increasingly shakey energy sector, particularly power is featured in the news almost daily. The country appears to be heading for a "perfect storm" of increasing demand and static production
Power demand has increased due to a number of factors including growing population, large data centres, industry and government facilities switching from gas/coal to electricity and (much lesser so far) EV takeup
Baseload production has seen little growth, only significant facility in recent times I can find is Tauhara geothermal just coming on line.
Hydro lakes are abnormally low for the time of year
Gas production from fields is falling and there are no new fields proposed for development.
Marsden oil refinery has closed and the coutry only has ~28 days fuel stock
Alot of money is being invested in "unreliables" but as this snap shot shows we can never be sure when they will actually be producing needed energy
Notable coal and geothermal are running at 80% plus capacity, hydro well down.
Even Mike Hoskings has chimed in
What to make of the so-called power crisis?
About this time yesterday Mike Fuge from Contact Energy gave an eloquent defence of the power industry.
He said it works fine, we are in a period of transition, the investment is being made and it will all work out well in the end.
Tell that to the mills who have so far closed, or stopped, and the workers who are waiting to hear whether they have jobs.
Tell that to the businesses paying double what they did last year for power.
Tell that to the farming sector, the likes of Fonterra, who say this now affects our export competitiveness.
They claim they have been arguing for industry reform for ages now. ANZCO, who are into meat, are paying twice what they were last year, and you know who that gets passed onto.
In the meantime, the Government is looking at liquefied natural gas.
Contact claimed yesterday on this show an announcement was coming on gas. Let's hope it's good.
And at some point we may or may not hear from the Commerce Commission or the Electricity Authority.
Although, if you have followed the various scraps of late over things like petrol, or building supplies, or supermarkets, or banks, when the likes of authorities get involved it appears to be more headline noise than any actual change.
The big picture is the key here. If we can't make enough power now, even with the arrival of the new stuff like the geothermal power and the wind and the solar, where do EV's, data centres and AI fit in?
Whether at a crisis point or not, power is too expensive in this country and not just too expensive, but clearly unreliable.
Three main things drive the industry currently - rain, gas, and wind.
There isn't enough rain currently.
We stopped looking for gas and current reserves are running out.
The wind isn't blowing.
That's three good options on paper but in reality, it doesn’t work.
So the industry says don’t panic but the users say it’s a crisis and our exports are being hit.
It seems to me this is a job for the Government. Jawboning, to this point, hasn’t and isn't working. Leaving it to the market isn't working.
If you don’t have power, you are third world. We look, currently, pretty third world.
About this time yesterday Mike Fuge from Contact Energy gave an eloquent defence of the power industry.
He said it works fine, we are in a period of transition, the investment is being made and it will all work out well in the end.
Tell that to the mills who have so far closed, or stopped, and the workers who are waiting to hear whether they have jobs.
Tell that to the businesses paying double what they did last year for power.
Tell that to the farming sector, the likes of Fonterra, who say this now affects our export competitiveness.
They claim they have been arguing for industry reform for ages now. ANZCO, who are into meat, are paying twice what they were last year, and you know who that gets passed onto.
In the meantime, the Government is looking at liquefied natural gas.
Contact claimed yesterday on this show an announcement was coming on gas. Let's hope it's good.
And at some point we may or may not hear from the Commerce Commission or the Electricity Authority.
Although, if you have followed the various scraps of late over things like petrol, or building supplies, or supermarkets, or banks, when the likes of authorities get involved it appears to be more headline noise than any actual change.
The big picture is the key here. If we can't make enough power now, even with the arrival of the new stuff like the geothermal power and the wind and the solar, where do EV's, data centres and AI fit in?
Whether at a crisis point or not, power is too expensive in this country and not just too expensive, but clearly unreliable.
Three main things drive the industry currently - rain, gas, and wind.
There isn't enough rain currently.
We stopped looking for gas and current reserves are running out.
The wind isn't blowing.
That's three good options on paper but in reality, it doesn’t work.
So the industry says don’t panic but the users say it’s a crisis and our exports are being hit.
It seems to me this is a job for the Government. Jawboning, to this point, hasn’t and isn't working. Leaving it to the market isn't working.
If you don’t have power, you are third world. We look, currently, pretty third world.
Some additional links on this broad subject
Open Country Dairy chair, Laurie Margrain, claims we'll still be reliant on coal by the end of next year, as we move towards lower-emission energy.
He says their alternative-powered Southland cheese factory - has had to incorporate standby coal-fired boilers - because of the risk of low electricity.
He says their alternative-powered Southland cheese factory - has had to incorporate standby coal-fired boilers - because of the risk of low electricity.
NZ should stop building more Wind and Solar farms immediately
As discussed over the past couple of days we have the perfect storm of dwindling gas supplies coupled with low hydro lake levels.
The system operator is working to “change the contingent storage release boundary”, which simply put means lower the level that hydro lakes can be drawn down (go lower than resource consented low level).This will be a necessary mitigation but is akin to eating your seed corn.
The further we draw the lakes down the more ideal conditions need to be to re-fill them again before next winter......
The system operator is working to “change the contingent storage release boundary”, which simply put means lower the level that hydro lakes can be drawn down (go lower than resource consented low level).This will be a necessary mitigation but is akin to eating your seed corn.
The further we draw the lakes down the more ideal conditions need to be to re-fill them again before next winter......
There is no easy solution but it is entirely possible if we have a dry summer we could be facing major power supply issues next year, so be prepared!
