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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2021 11:07:53 GMT 12
I'll put this out there ..
I firmly believe the housing price boom of the last 10 years has lifted more people ( low and middle income) out of poverty than anything the government has done.
Not only has in made low income earners, who worked thier ass off getting into the property market, richer, but it has made the rich richer which in turn allows them to employ more people, build more rentals for the poor, and spend nor money in areas where poor people benefit.
Take a labourer from Porirua/ tikipunga/ south Auckland/... who 10 years ago brought a shitter for $400k. . He now has a 1 million dollar investment he can sell, then get a job in a small town, spend 590k on a equal house and put 410k in the bank.
Some in Tikipunga paid 190k ten years ago that they could sell for 6-700k today ... Do the maths đź’Ą
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Post by grounded on Dec 27, 2021 11:24:08 GMT 12
If you own your own Home, you are very unlikely to be in the "living in Poverty" group. A current home owner only becomes rich if they sell. Not everyone wants to move to some small town beyond the Black Stump, which is where you have to go to be able to get a cheap home and there may not be the work available. In the meantime, those that have Homes that are now worth over the mill, now have higher rates (or will do), higher insurance etc. Those wanting to buy fir the first time can't and those than managed to swing it with the Banks, now have mortgages that make your eyes water. Those that cannot buy are stuck in Rentals with Rents even higher than mortgages. It is no where near as simple as you suggest.
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Post by Fogg on Dec 27, 2021 14:53:26 GMT 12
The NZ housing market is fundamentally warped and whilst it creates wealth which is welcomed by those fortunate enough to access it, it creates worse consequences.
The primary purpose of a housing market should be to enable average inhabits to find a respectable place to live at an affordable cost. Obviously there will be big prices differences between the most and least sought after locations but there should be a choice to suit most average folks.
To fulfil this you want the market to be relatively stable with no abrupt changes up or down. Ideal scenario would he house prices matching inflation with other factors - such as population changes - having only temporary artificial effects. Of course in the real world this ideal is never achievable resulting in house prices usually increasing above inflation - the challenge is to minimise this delta.
If you want to generate wealth you want to encourage people to do other more productive things with their money eg start a business or else invest in funds that support other businesses or economic growth activities.
The problem in NZ is the conflation between these two purposes ie houses have become both a place to live and a primary wealth generating mechanism for many families.
This makes kiwis lazy investors and unproductive & unimaginative business owners because they can get better & lower risk returns by extracting cash from their business and putting into a bigger Ponsonby villa than by reinvesting in their business to develop new products or markets, for example.
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Post by armchairadmiral on Dec 27, 2021 14:59:30 GMT 12
Wait for the upcoming property market crash....for those who have borrowed and bought in the last 3 / 5 yrs.As stated you only 'profit' if you sell and don't replace....or move to a cheaper area.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2021 15:06:36 GMT 12
So this all begs the question...
How do we/ can we lift the bottom dwellers that took wrong options, were dealt a bad blow, or were born into the wrong situations, into the property market... without killing the goldern egg, putting more burden on the taxpayer ( the working middle class) , and giving the undeserving a house?... And be fair..... We can't ? ... Or can we?
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Post by Fogg on Dec 27, 2021 16:14:09 GMT 12
The govt shouldn’t be in the business of building houses itself to solve this problem but instead creating the most favourable conditions to incentivise private sector to build right kind of houses in right areas.
In other countries this includes things like forcing developers to build a representative mix of sizes & prices to be given consent on a given development site. To avoid them catering to the top bracket only.
Also, governments have encouraged creative new techniques like converting an old airfield into a private development site - allowing private individuals to buy a plot at low price and skip many of the normal rules & hurdles to encourage highly creative, individual hone builds. These are often taken up by young couples who otherwise couldn’t afford to build or buy via traditional routes. It also encourages creative flair resulting in some amazing variety of designs side-by-side. As opposed to the depressingly repetitive housing estates popping up all around Auckland.
It just takes some more imaginative policy to try this stuff.
Therein lies the problem.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2021 18:51:20 GMT 12
Houses should never be government supported or funded.
why should a loser/ druggie/ gang members/ thief get a better deal than a hard honest worker but how do you deferentiate?
Well quite easily actually by accessing all their data and putting the losers in rehab/ skill training areas or into subsidized fruit picking / labouring work in other areas then building very average pre fab houses in the wop wops that they live in until they earn a deposit for a home in the real world.
Mixed housing is a cop out and just ruins life for the good people and promotes enclave's and covenants to protect good people but compromise a great end result
The losers need to comply with society or eff off, not society compromising to help out losers
The way it is at the moment Is pathetic. We have the losers being pandered too and now demanding more for no input other than demanding human rights while a bunch of pc pollies see the easy way out by throwing money at them rather than solutions and some tough plain talking about the reality of the bad choices they have made for themselves and their whanau.
It's just so dumb
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Post by grounded on Dec 28, 2021 7:18:14 GMT 12
By providing State Homes, you help lift people out of Poverty. Our Country was built on that very thing of providing State Homes. My Parents got their start in a State Home. They were none of the things you list above of course. They managed to make something of themselves, but it took a tremendous amount of hardwork and sacrifice.
Families living in Poverty have a higher chance (statistically) of falling into one or more of those catergories you list. By finding as many ways to get them up out of poverty means we (as a Society) can get these poorer folk up out of poverty and hopefully reduce the Crime Statistics. But there is also a problem now with State homes of the 50's/60's. They were built side by side, resulting in the creation of large communities of low Socioeconomic Families. In some Cities of the World, they are called Slums. Rank with crimes of all types. As NZ State Homes became old and tired and other more affluent areas popped up with flash wealthy People in flash wealthy Homes, we simply and to a point, unwittingly created the slums of today, where we have division among Rich and Poor, areas of poverty, high unemplolyment and bordem that leads to crime and so on and bingo, we have these problems in Society today. But that is not to say Wealthy Families do not have their problems either. You still get "Rich Kids" doing Drugs. We all know wealthy people getting into serious drugs and crimes. So in recent years, the Gvt figured that the way to stop most of the old State Home issues, was to allow Developers to build flash suburbs, but ensure that lower price Homes were also included within the Flash Homes. One of the first was Hobsonville, site of the old RNZAF. But I think one major mistake was made. The Gvt decided to sell the sections at a premium. the developers had to build minimum value Homes and there were very few cheap homes built in the end. Some would even argue that the type of Home built, the High density type design, will only produce the Slums of tomorrow.
What I am trying to show and to say above is that the problems are vast and varying. Scooner, your assumptions and your ideas of how to solve are far to narrow. It is complex and the one thing I do agree with you on, is that providing State Homes alone, is not the fix. In the end, the cost of Home ownership is out of reach for the vast majority. Problem is, there are few Alternatives. If you rent, you are trapped. Making Home Loans tougher to get will not help the problem. It only makes the other issues worse. Very simply, Costs of Building are too high in NZ for a nyriad of reasons. Cost of buying Land in NZ is far too expensive due to all the red tape and the cost of development today. Things are not being helped by the difficulty in getting building products at the moment.
And finally, we as a Country do NOT want to see House prices Fall. The damage is done. They must maintain their price, because if Homes were to drop in Value, we end up with a major Financial crises on our hands. The only way to solve the situation is to have Peoples incomes lifted to meet the cost of Homes. But that is not so easy and painless either. Simply, we are not building enough Homes in NZ to meet the demand. Meeting demand means prices will plateau. We have just started seeing that in many areas of NZ, but it is caused by many locked out of the market by the Reserve Bank lending rules to Mortgage providers.
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Post by sloopjohnb on Dec 28, 2021 7:56:03 GMT 12
There's the answer but to that to happen today..........."you dreaming"
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Post by armchairadmiral on Dec 28, 2021 8:02:05 GMT 12
You overlook a lot in there G. i'll try & cover some of that. First the State House era was post WW II & all that brought. Refugees who wanted to work ,save and rebuild their lives. 10 pound poms poured in. Land was carved up with few infrastructure amenities = low cost.Section cost probably around 20 % of home. Mostly larger sections too which subsequently got subdivided off to create huge load on inadequate infrastructure creating compression of population which can cause friction. Those old Beazley,Keith Hay houses were well built too,unlike the leakers of the 90's. Crime doesn't necessarily follow low socio economics either. Witness John Key for instance but lack of education can be a major factor. That'll do suffice to say that there are many varied factors. In Europe kids live with parents waiting for them to die so sadly thats where NZ is heading. Unless Govt.frees up land ,funding infrastructure and introducing less complicated consenting procedures.It can be done but of course ,as you say, a reducing price market isn't going to be a vote winner . See my post above. A gigantic 'reset' is just around the corner for NZ
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2021 14:07:21 GMT 12
You overlook a lot in there G. i'll try & cover some of that. First the State House era was post WW II & all that brought. Refugees who wanted to work ,save and rebuild their lives. 10 pound poms poured in. Land was carved up with few infrastructure amenities = low cost.Section cost probably around 20 % of home. Mostly larger sections too which subsequently got subdivided off to create huge load on inadequate infrastructure creating compression of population which can cause friction. Those old Beazley,Keith Hay houses were well built too,unlike the leakers of the 90's. Crime doesn't necessarily follow low socio economics either. Witness John Key for instance but lack of education can be a major factor. That'll do suffice to say that there are many varied factors. In Europe kids live with parents waiting for them to die so sadly thats where NZ is heading. Unless Govt.frees up land ,funding infrastructure and introducing less complicated consenting procedures.It can be done but of course ,as you say, a reducing price market isn't going to be a vote winner . See my post above. A gigantic 'reset' is just around the corner for NZ yip, I totally agree a humongous reset is coming... Inflation will collide with huge Govt debt, interest rate increase, the brain drain, 100,000 covid returnees going back to where they come from...
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Post by grounded on Dec 29, 2021 5:10:36 GMT 12
Interest has always gone up and down. It is like the Tide. You have to prepare in advance for it.
By the way, some of Europe has a system where very few own a Home. the land is just too expensive. But Rents are more affordable. Some place have bare apartments. And I mean bare. Nothing but white walls. When you move in, you do everything. Fit modular Kitchens, do your own colour scheme and so on. When you move out, you have to strip it back to bare again. But people tend to live very long term in these places. In Austria, the Renter is responsible for the safety of everyone in and around their building. Enev to the point of clearing snow away of the foot path each day to ensure peoples safety as hey walk past.
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Post by fish on Dec 29, 2021 9:21:01 GMT 12
Houses should never be government supported or funded. why should a loser/ druggie/ gang members/ thief get a better deal than a hard honest worker but how do you deferentiate? I've got this crazy idea. Take the kids of the loser / druggie / gang member / thief, put them in a warm and dry house so they don't get sick all the time, give them enough food so they can concentrate, then send them to school so they can learn to read and write, and possibly even learn knowledge or skills to contribute to the country. It is just possible you may need to accommodate and feed a few of the loser / druggie / gang member / thief at the same time, lets call it collateral damage. If you are living in a car, and always hungry, it is going to be impossible to stay healthy and learn. A very strong motivation to start stealing, or doing drugs to 'escape'. We could even get completely carried away, and set it up so the kids aren't moved every 3-6 months, so they stay put long enough to develop social relationships and connections around them. They may possibly be able to learn the fundamentals of social interaction, and heaven forbid, get into such things as sports where they learn life skills like striving for a goal, working as part of a team, and, heaven forbid, realise that if they work hard and persevere, they can be successful. Alternatively, we can tell them every day that because of who they are (Maori normally), it doesn't matter what they do or how hard they try, they will always be a failure. The constant commentary on vaccine rates is a good example of that. It is beyond me how any kid could strive to be better if every govt agency and social service provider, along with the media, tell them they are doomed on a daily basis.
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Post by grounded on Dec 29, 2021 11:48:24 GMT 12
There is one factor no one has touched on yet. Culture. The way we White European Wealthy (so they tell me) Folk view life vs the way Maori view life is vastly different. I am not saying either is right or wrong. It's just different. It is very much the case of the Mexican Fisherman vs the American Businesman story. The Mexican sitting under the Palm Tree playing his Guitar and enjoying life. While the Businessan believes the Mexican should be working hard, building a business so he can retire and have exactly the same outcome. Neither the Mexican or the Businessman is right or wrong with their views of life. But both think the other is being silly and missing the opportunities life can give. Now think about the fact that we White European Folk often expect Maori to have the same view of life as we do. Most expect Maori to get a good education, earn a good wage and be "hard working valued contributors to Society" (as I have heard it put). Many Maori don't see it that way. We don't understand and shake our heads in disbelief that they don't get it.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2021 12:06:24 GMT 12
Houses should never be government supported or funded. why should a loser/ druggie/ gang members/ thief get a better deal than a hard honest worker but how do you deferentiate? I've got this crazy idea. Take the kids of the loser / druggie / gang member / thief, put them in a warm and dry house so they don't get sick all the time, give them enough food so they can concentrate, then send them to school so they can learn to read and write, and possibly even learn knowledge or skills to contribute to the country. It is just possible you may need to accommodate and feed a few of the loser / druggie / gang member / thief at the same time, lets call it collateral damage. If you are living in a car, and always hungry, it is going to be impossible to stay healthy and learn. A very strong motivation to start stealing, or doing drugs to 'escape'. We could even get completely carried away, and set it up so the kids aren't moved every 3-6 months, so they stay put long enough to develop social relationships and connections around them. They may possibly be able to learn the fundamentals of social interaction, and heaven forbid, get into such things as sports where they learn life skills like striving for a goal, working as part of a team, and, heaven forbid, realise that if they work hard and persevere, they can be successful. Alternatively, we can tell them every day that because of who they are (Maori normally), it doesn't matter what they do or how hard they try, they will always be a failure. The constant commentary on vaccine rates is a good example of that. It is beyond me how any kid could strive to be better if every govt agency and social service provider, along with the media, tell them they are doomed on a daily basis. that's good stuff and sensible.... Most of the "affected" do that anyway. They have pride and respect. I suspect the minority that don't probably never will.
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