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Post by em on Jul 31, 2022 7:18:07 GMT 12
Somewhere in that chart is Ukraine, apparently disruption there can upset the whole worlds economic system. Ukraine has had a multiplier effect well beyond their usual direct area of impact. 1. Food supply uncertainty (notably grain) 2. Fuel supply uncertainty (notably cost) 3. Massive increase for rest of the world Ukraine doesn’t feed or fuel the world but the war has created a multiplier effect as if it did. Isn’t there a bit of diesel instability and fertiliser too now that Russia can’t supply those to Europe ? So now Europe looks to other markets which increases demand=prices . Seems like the gas issue is driving up leccy prices which flows over to manufacturing or any other service that needs electricity so they increase prices too |
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Post by ComfortZone on Aug 8, 2022 20:27:04 GMT 12
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Post by jim on Aug 8, 2022 21:12:07 GMT 12
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2022 22:41:45 GMT 12
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Post by eri on Oct 19, 2022 8:23:40 GMT 12
No country can afford to have government spending over 30 per cent of GDP. In New Zealand government's share of GDP has risen from 35.64 per cent under Bill English to 42.94 per cent last year. Treasury predicts this will fall but, as we have noted, treasury predictions are rarely correct.
If he(uk finance minister) had announced a programme to reduce government spending so the tax reductions were neutral the market and the economy would have rewarded him. This is the real lesson of the Liz/Kwasi morality tale.
Is either Labour or National listening?
www.nzherald.co.nz/business/richard-prebble-liz-truss-and-kwasi-kwarteng-a-modern-morality-tale/SD63MIPBTS2EHAKW4OAXWWZJAA/
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2022 14:55:35 GMT 12
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Post by Cantab on Oct 19, 2022 15:29:37 GMT 12
When they say balanced budget, what you think it means and what it actually means are very different.
Think balanced more in terms of clowns juggling than traders weighing scales.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2022 16:29:24 GMT 12
When they say balanced budget, what you think it means and what it actually means are very different. Think balanced more in terms of clowns juggling than traders weighing scales. balanced?... Depends what you load your scales with fiscally v socially.... With labour they think the fiscal side of the scales should be full with as much money the RB can print and the social side full of minority, green, Maori, waste..... Instead of responsible needs. |
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Post by ComfortZone on Oct 21, 2022 10:18:35 GMT 12
Summary of a recent meeting of the Employers and Manufacturers Association
The EMA meeting has just taken place and it was a bleak outlook given to those in attendance. Salient points below;
GDP is still bouncing around and is expected to be around 1.5 shortly.
NZ Debt level is now 21% to GDP, the highest it has ever been.
Supply chain concerns with China reducing access further. They are closing additional ports and expect ports constraints for next 12-18 months.
Official cash rate expected to move to 4% by Christmas, impacting households with mortgages increasing from 2-3% to 6-7% as peoples mortgages roll over. Around 60% of mortgages come off fixed rates this year.
People will spend less on discretionary spending.
Interest rates and inflation expected to increase until 2025.
Staff poaching is rampant with people offered $30K more within NZ for similar senior roles and $40K more to go to Australia for similar roles.
Employers are offering carrot of retention payments and sign on bonuses.
Minimum wage for migrants moves to $59600 1/2/23 so this will not address hospitality or factory worker shortages. Consider Canterbury bus drivers have only just agreed a wage increase from $24/hr to $28/hr (to bring them in line with the nationwide rate) so the shortage of bus drivers can't be fixed by this either. Barely any shortage sector jobs are covered.
Of particular concern are their comments around the Fair Pay and NIIS the Government is trying of force through.
The EMA are opposing the Fair Pay and NIIS Bills but think they will inevitably pass by force under this Government.
Fair Pay Bill issues;
Locks you into long term low pay and compresses the bands between staff as employers forced to increase lowest paid staff.
Issues around anti-social hours.
Employer is basically forced to pay for and do the marketing for unions.
Private information required to be handed over to unions (privacy breach).
NIIS Bill issues;
Additional 1.9% tax on each employee that will come out of the employees take home wage.
If an employer makes someone redundant they have to pay them 4 weeks @80% plus they get any redundancy pay out in their IEA, plus they get 6 months assistance from NIIS (80% prev. wage), plus medical and mental well being support.
58% people feel we as a country are heading in the wrong direction.
27% think we are heading in the right direction.
The rest are undecided.
37% of workforce who answered EMA survey indicate they are considering going somewhere else
Importance of succession planning, learning new skills, and getting the right people.
ACC Change
For bullying in the workplace there are now two pathways for employee to claim under:
Employee can make an ER claim (investigation and discipline process).
Under the ACC ACT they can now make claim in relation to bullying for mental harm (workplace mental injury).
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Post by eri on Nov 1, 2022 7:39:09 GMT 12
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Post by eri on Nov 5, 2022 9:04:10 GMT 12
Even if we accept that New Zealand and the Labour Government did well in its initial pandemic response (which Hartwich says he does), it doesn’t follow that this is a blueprint for the future, he says.He draws an analogy to post-war Europe in 1945.Britain, having won the war, had great faith in the power of the State.
They embarked on a programme to expand the welfare state and nationalise industries.That kind of central control is totally appropriate when you are fighting a war, Hartwich says.
“But it is the wrong prescription in peace-time.”“So you look at the counter-example in Germany. There, they were defeated. The State was thoroughly discredited ... the infrastructure was destroyed,” he says."There was no faith in the State to build a better future."
“So Germany freed up markets, strengthened property rights, basically put in place a classical liberal prescription. Twenty years later, Germany had overtaken Britain in GDP per capita terms. For the first time in history.”Hopefully, given the political reality in New Zealand, there is a middle path.Perhaps the major political parties can find more common ground for bipartisan policymaking - as they seem to have with property zoning reforms.“What we should we take from Covid is what we’ve learned from it about how we respond to external shocks,” Infometrics’ Olsen says."The ability for fiscal policy to be more proactive has created an opportunity to think about how we use fiscal and monetary policy together."We do have to change the way we talk about tax at some point, he says."We often talk about in terms of how much to give rather than what do I get.""At the end of the day there are priorities and there is only a limited pot of money."www.nzherald.co.nz/business/rebuilding-better-the-big-economic-and-social-questions-new-zealand-faces/DUI3JEMQFBIDGPTI7OW6J5T6NE/
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Post by Cantab on Nov 6, 2022 5:47:52 GMT 12
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Post by sloopjohnb on Nov 6, 2022 8:40:06 GMT 12
Can image TVONE running that??? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2022 7:23:05 GMT 12
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Post by eri on Nov 23, 2022 17:47:27 GMT 12
“The big surprise was in the projected OCR track,” said Westpac chief economist Michael Gordon. “The RBNZ sees inflation as deeply embedded in the New Zealand economy.
It now believes that a recession will be needed to bring inflation back within the 1-3 per cent target range in the coming years.”
Orr had a message for those kiwis who were still spending and consuming:
“Think harder about your spending. Think harder about saving rather than spending, cool your jets.”www.nzherald.co.nz/business/shock-and-orr-rbnz-governor-expected-to-deliver-historic-rate-hike/5UPN7N6CWZA7VADS2M5TLEDN5A/we'll have this recession because orr printed too much money for his labour mates and now he's telling us to reduce spending? can this "addicted to spending" gov. also reduce spending? because it won't matter 1 jot if i reduce spending and grant + jacinda don't hopefully brown will get auckland's spending down
he can start by sacking panuku?
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