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ukraine
Sept 21, 2022 19:25:52 GMT 12
Post by jim on Sept 21, 2022 19:25:52 GMT 12
the situation is getting more complicated now ...https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-21/vladimir-putin-announces-partial-military-mobilisation/101463346
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ukraine
Sept 21, 2022 19:58:31 GMT 12
Post by eri on Sept 21, 2022 19:58:31 GMT 12
he feels secure enough to play this card
and implying his next card could be full-mobilisation
afterall he's had such success covertly manipulating americans with minute inputs
he should have no problem turning it up to 11 with his own captive population
"Putin said the West had engaged in nuclear blackmail, but Russia had "lots of weapons to reply" and that he was not bluffing."
xi will be watching this very closely
maybe the kims of north korea were right all along?
build a big enough police-state
and you can brow-beat and brainwash the population into whatever shape yopu want!
certainly NZ labour is all about "changing the narrative"
ideology now trumps everything
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ukraine
Sept 21, 2022 21:10:02 GMT 12
Post by fish on Sept 21, 2022 21:10:02 GMT 12
From a military point of view, I would have thought 300,000 conscripts was more of a handicap than anything.
The Russian militaries current issues have been around effective command and control. They are lacking a lot of basic tech like secure radio comms. A significant number of Generals have been killed already. Hence issues with the 'command' side. They are using a lot of old equipment, and working through stocks of soviet era hardware. There have been reports of units of 10 being sent out with 2 helmets and 2 sets of body armour. Many soldiers are paying for their own gear. Issues with corruption in the supply chain.
The only element that does seem to be going well for them is their artillery and missiles. So what do you do with 300,000 more mouths to feed? Perhaps they will be used to strengthen supply lines so the hard core fighters can keep up with the fighting?
But from the Political point of view, the big issue is these referenda. The west has been very very careful about not attacking Russia itself. When Russia says the Donbase is now Russia, will the west still attack it? Could that provoke a nuclear response? Nuclear is about the only effective threat Putin has now. They have been getting a spanking on the battle field. Ukraines tactics are good, and Ukraine is getting constantly re-supplied from the west. So in a war of attrition (rockets, artilery shells, ammo etc) Ukraine can out-last Russia.
This may be where the conscripts come in. Russia has never in history cared how many men they loose, and Russia has plenty of men to send in...
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ukraine
Sept 22, 2022 7:39:41 GMT 12
Post by eri on Sept 22, 2022 7:39:41 GMT 12
Large numbers of Russians have rushed to book one-way tickets out of the country while they still could, after President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation of military reservists for the war in Ukraine.
Flights filled up quickly and the prices of fares for remaining connections skyrocketed, apparently driven by fears that Russia's borders could soon close, or of a broader call-up that might send many men of fighting age to the war’s front lines.
Tickets for the Moscow-Belgrade flights operated by Air Serbia – the only European carrier besides Turkish Airlines to maintain flights to Russia despite an EU flight embargo – sold out for the next several days.
“All the Russians who wanted to go to war already went,” the group said. “No one else wants to go there!”
Serbia's capital, Belgrade, has become a popular destination for Russians during the war. Up to 50,000 Russians have fled to Serbia since Russia invaded Ukraine and many opened businesses, especially in the IT sector.
www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300694659/russians-rush-to-book-oneway-flights-after-vladimir-putin-calls-up-reservists-for-ukraine-war
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ukraine
Sept 22, 2022 13:43:21 GMT 12
Post by em on Sept 22, 2022 13:43:21 GMT 12
These clips from Julia Davis are eyeopeners and a good insight to the psyche of some of the RU shakers and movers .
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Post by eri on Sept 22, 2022 14:56:42 GMT 12
"Any move towards tactical nuclear or WMD [weapons of mass destruction] - then Russia immediately loses China, their most valuable ally," said Dr Paul Dorfman, a nuclear safety expert who has advised the British government, in a Twitter post."In fact, Putin loses everything."www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-what-would-happen-if-putin-unleashes-a-nuclear-strike/X66UK63KQBX55XMIC3CIUBFXGI/in making nuclear threats but telling the russian people they are being nuclear threatened he shows himself to be a narcissist along the lines of trump just like when someone starts make strange accusations about their partner secretly checking their phone it hasn't come from nowhere but because THEY have been secretly checking their partners phone and instead of feeling guilty about it like normal peoplenarcissists try to convinced themselves, and anyone foolish enough to believe them, that THEY are the ones being persecuted the americans have had a terrible time untangling themselves from trump's slipped grasp of reality russia and china had terrible times getting rid of stalin and mao germany paid a huge price for hitler we need to realize these unreasonable people exist, in ever greater numbersand by definition can not be reasoned with and so we need robust systems, at every level, for identifying them and keeping them away from the power they feel they so greatly deserve and, if we only realize after they've grabbed the power, sidelining them before their self-absorbed view of the world does much damage to everyone they have power over
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ukraine
Sept 22, 2022 17:17:33 GMT 12
Post by fish on Sept 22, 2022 17:17:33 GMT 12
While everyone is distracted with Putin's escalation, this happens: Russia and Ukraine have carried out an unexpected prisoner swap, the largest since the war began and involving almost 300 people. The foreigners released included two Britons and a Moroccan who had been sentenced to death in June after being captured fighting for Ukraine. Also freed were three other Britons, two Americans, a Croatian, and a Swedish national. The timing and magnitude of the swap came as a surprise, given Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced a partial troop mobilisation earlier in the day in an apparent escalation of the conflict that began in February. Pro-Russian separatists had also said last month that the Mariupol commanders would go on trial. President Volodymyr Zelensky said the swap - which involved help from Turkey and Saudi Arabia - had been under preparation for quite a long time and involved intense haggling. Under the terms of the deal, 215 Ukrainians - most of whom were captured after the fall of Mariupol - were released. In exchange, Ukraine sent back 55 Russians and pro-Moscow Ukrainians and Viktor Medvedchuk, the leader of a banned pro-Russian party who was facing treason charges. www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/475294/russia-ukraine-announce-surprise-prisoner-swap |
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ukraine
Sept 22, 2022 17:25:44 GMT 12
Post by eri on Sept 22, 2022 17:25:44 GMT 12
a good result
esp. considering the ukrainians have probably gained a few more prisoners to bargain with over the last 2 weeks
hopefully russia won't start harvesting ukrainian civilians to act as currency
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ukraine
Sept 22, 2022 20:05:31 GMT 12
Post by fish on Sept 22, 2022 20:05:31 GMT 12
a good result esp. considering the ukrainians have probably gained a few more prisoners to bargain with over the last 2 weeks hopefully russia won't start harvesting ukrainian civilians to act as currency I think they've already got several hundred thousand civilians that have been taken to Russia. Half of Mariupol. A lot of children were sent to 'safety' in Russia and haven't been seen since. There has been a fair bit of 'forced evacuations'. Its fairly hard to judge, as a lot of those areas, portions of the population are pro Russian. I'd be worried for anyone that was overtly pro any side. I think the Russians shipped off any pro Ukraine people to 're-education camps' in the motherland. And now Russia is loosing territory, I think the pro Russian civic leaders etc are now in a world of shit with a degree of retribution coming their way. Hard to know exactly what is going on. "The first causality of war is the truth". We are clearly only getting one side of the story, but either way, I wouldn't want to be trying to live, work and raise a family in Eastern Ukraine now, or any time soon. |
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ukraine
Sept 22, 2022 21:49:05 GMT 12
Post by eri on Sept 22, 2022 21:49:05 GMT 12
International analysts estimate the Russian military has lost between 70,000 and 80,000 troops killed or wounded. That's half the original invasion force.
International observers have called this weekend's secession referendums in Russian-occupied territories a sham.
Putin doesn't care. All he wants is a vaguely plausible excuse to escalate further.
If Russia considers the occupied Ukrainian provinces to now be part of Russia itself, then he could justify "total war".
That means activating the political powers necessary to dedicate Russia's entire economy to the war effort, and deploy all its military might.
And that includes nuclear weapons. Putin made that clear on Wednesday.
There's no doubt Putin is manoeuvring to give himself a sense of justification.
"Encroachment onto Russian territory is a crime which allows you to use all the forces of self-defence," former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declared in a Telegram message.
"The call up of fathers and uncles will now increasingly bring this war home and … turn the tide of public support for the war."
Putin's autocracy grew under the guise of democracy because of public apathy.
His simplistic argument was appealing.
He made the hard decisions. He made them happen. He got them right.
"Part of the larger unwritten social bargain between Putin and the Russian public is the people stay out of politics in exchange for relative prosperity and stability," says Bergmann. "That bargain is being totally up-ended by the war."
"The mobilisation order will allow Russia to prevent those currently in the military from leaving even when their terms of service are up, "Bergmann says. "This stop-loss policy should keep forces on the battlefield and stave off a total collapse."
But it comes with a price.
"Those that signed up to fight on short, temporary contracts are now trapped. Morale could further plummet," he added.
www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-map-shows-desperate-putin-is-losing-control-has-nowhere-to-turn/MF2NDONESC7RCWPSYB5J7MBRHY/
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ukraine
Sept 23, 2022 10:45:23 GMT 12
Post by GO30 on Sept 23, 2022 10:45:23 GMT 12
This shit is starting to get seriously real and a lot closer to WW3 than last week.
Glad we have rural as if it does kick off cities will become very twitchy places
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ukraine
Sept 23, 2022 10:57:49 GMT 12
Post by fish on Sept 23, 2022 10:57:49 GMT 12
This shit is starting to get seriously real and a lot closer to WW3 than last week. Glad we have rural as if it does kick off cities will become very twitchy places One of the points in the 1980's assessment of the impact of a nuclear war was that a lot of people would leave the urban environment (apartments particularly) and go rural and a subsistence lifestyle. So yes, rural would be the best place to be. One thing that might catch you out, how does solar go in a nuclear winter? If there are ash clouds blocking the sun, you might not get the ergs you have budgeted on ;-) But on the current situation, there is an increasing risk of a mistake or error kicking something off. Nato and the US have assets rammed into eastern Europe. Everyone is getting super twitchy. That 80's song '99 Red Balloons' about triggering an all out nuclear war because balloons were mistaken on radar for something else. Chuck in a bunch of poorly trained conscripts and Russia's infamously dodgy equipment. Could they mistake a flock of birds or a thunder cell for a missile attack? |
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ukraine
Sept 23, 2022 11:03:07 GMT 12
Post by GO30 on Sept 23, 2022 11:03:07 GMT 12
Good point re solar but we have a shed load of trees and matches, we'll be OK.
Yeap totally agree and have been saying so for decades, man will waste itself or a shit load of us due to a simple mistake or glitch.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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ukraine
Sept 24, 2022 14:04:51 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2022 14:04:51 GMT 12
Who would Putin aim the first nuke at after targeting bomb 1 on Ukraine?...
There lies his main big problem!
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ukraine
Sept 25, 2022 12:57:19 GMT 12
Post by GO30 on Sept 25, 2022 12:57:19 GMT 12
Who would Putin aim the first nuke at after targeting bomb 1 on Ukraine?... There lies his main big problem! Do you really think he's that loony?
He's quite the devoted family man, surely he's well aware that if he pushed the button he'd be killing them as well. Or do these supposes elites think their bomb shelters will work for them?
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