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ukraine
Sept 25, 2022 20:57:38 GMT 12
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2022 20:57:38 GMT 12
He's loony alright.. but that's what I am saying... He wouldn't fire a first one cos he knows that when the nukes are returned he wouldn't know who to aim at next.
So let's say he did?.. who would he target?.... Tricky aye!
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ukraine
Sept 27, 2022 14:37:38 GMT 12
via mobile
fish likes this
Post by Fogg on Sept 27, 2022 14:37:38 GMT 12
You can be sure that NATO has already written the playbook for how it would respond in the event he presses the nuke button. It’s obvious that NATO would immediately regard it as the trigger to formally engage - rather than simply supporting Ukraine from behind. The question is whether NATO decided to also go nuclear? They might not. They might decide they have enough conventional might to effectively wipe out Putin without the need to escalate to nuclear both sides.
It’s not as if they would need to immobilise the rest of Russia because it’s increasingly clear this is Putin’s war not Russia’s. If they take him out, the situation will ease immediately, I feel.
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ukraine
Sept 27, 2022 14:53:39 GMT 12
Post by em on Sept 27, 2022 14:53:39 GMT 12
NATO has a swarm of aircraft monitoring sigint and tracking subs right now . Like Fogg said they will have very detailed response or several different responses sorted already and all the resources will be on standby for a conventional response and nuclear . They are probably tracking Putin when they can too looking for a rare chance to pop him one if they need to. I read recently that NATO could neutralise Russia within 24Hrs using conventional methods which I guess would be a mass airstrike , rockets , drones etc
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ukraine
Sept 27, 2022 14:57:47 GMT 12
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Post by Fogg on Sept 27, 2022 14:57:47 GMT 12
Exactly. The more I think about it the less I think NATO would use nuclear. I don’t think they would need to.
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ukraine
Sept 27, 2022 15:27:03 GMT 12
Post by armchairadmiral on Sept 27, 2022 15:27:03 GMT 12
And downwind for radiation is China. He won't for that reason alone
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ukraine
Sept 27, 2022 16:13:22 GMT 12
Post by eri on Sept 27, 2022 16:13:22 GMT 12
read a good article today saying putin MAY be able to convince his generals to a show of force by sending a small tactical nuke missile to some uninhibited ukrainian island like snake island so what should the west/usa plan to do if he does this? the writer's point was the west should probably do nothing while his generals might let him do this, once it was done they'd probably have all the excuse they need to depose him and the public would then back his removal meanwhile putin's slipping down the hitler/mussolini/stalin/idi amin,kim/chavez/mugabe rabbit hole of believing he knows everything, which may trigger his own little stalingrad Vladimir Putin has fired his most senior general in charge of logistics for the war in Ukraine as he takes an increasingly hands-on role in directing army strategy,
reportedly phoning frontline commanders himself and overriding their advice from the ground.
Putin has reportedly ignored pleas from his commanders to take action to minimise losses before it is too late, according to American officials briefed on highly sensitive intelligence.
Thousands of Russian troops may soon be surrounded in Kherson but the president has rejected calls from generals there to stage an orderly withdrawal
www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-sacks-another-military-general-as-he-takes-hands-on-approach-to-war-from-moscow/BEXADXJUWOFMDKZ7PK5LPRIPOM/
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ukraine
Sept 27, 2022 19:50:03 GMT 12
eri likes this
Post by fish on Sept 27, 2022 19:50:03 GMT 12
NATO has a swarm of aircraft monitoring sigint and tracking subs right now . Like Fogg said they will have very detailed response or several different responses sorted already and all the resources will be on standby for a conventional response and nuclear . They are probably tracking Putin when they can too looking for a rare chance to pop him one if they need to. I read recently that NATO could neutralise Russia within 24Hrs using conventional methods which I guess would be a mass airstrike , rockets , drones etc I think this is right, and NATO has no need for Nukes. I don't think nukes give any tactical advantage, and they are a pain to clean up afterwards. The value of nukes is in deterrent. A case in point is that is why everyone is talking about these tiny tactical nukes, not the big ones launched by ICBM's. As far as I can tell, the only practical reason for this war (apart from vanity) is the economic value of the region. Steel mills, grain production, natural resources etc. That and easy access to shipping (coastal position). Nuking it makes it useless for any economic benefit. Worst case is a scorched earth policy if they are loosing, which they are fairly much doing now, taking out all of the power infrastructure, bridges and any building that is worth anything. You can achieve that with conventional weapons without the added risk of nuclear fallout. Next question, how do you defeat someone with nukes? You have to take out all of their nukes as quick as you can. I'm sure NATO already have eyes on every missile silo and airfield where they can launch from. The big unknown is the submarines. And that has always been the whole point of nuclear armed subs, as the ultimate deterrent. We can only hope NATO have developed tech to track the Russian subs, but I wouldn't rely on it. The next line of defense is the ability to shoot nukes down once they are in the air. Considering each missile has 6 or 7 warheads each, that could be complicated. The missile shoots them up (into space) and the individual warheads can re-enter and come down on individual targets. That could get messy. But again, there main purpose is deterrent. If Putin commands subs to launch ICBM's the the law of mutually assured destruction applies and Russia is gone. (along with half of the western world also, but Putin's Russia will still be gone.) In the big scheme of things, this is (currently) a small regional conflict. The US has conducted a half a dozen of these in the over recent decades. The only differences are a) we care about this one, and b) europe is facing an energy crisis because of it. Otherwise it is really just another Iraq, Afghanistan (US and Russian), Korea, Vietnam, etc. Remember the lesson from Russia in Afghanistan? The economic toll. Sanctions aside, if a country sends all of their productive workers to war (conscription) who is left to produce stuff? The cost of the war will end it before Nukes do.
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Post by em on Sept 27, 2022 20:39:11 GMT 12
Getting the hell out of dodgekova
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ukraine
Sept 30, 2022 19:02:48 GMT 12
Post by jim on Sept 30, 2022 19:02:48 GMT 12
Plenty of cloaks and daggers everywhere these days ...https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-military-aircraft-circled-nord-stream-incident-site-in-se
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ukraine
Oct 2, 2022 19:11:55 GMT 12
Post by eri on Oct 2, 2022 19:11:55 GMT 12
the end of a good herald article Thank goodness for British nukes
What could Putin do then? Escalate again, as he and his spokesmen have threatened, and use strategic megaton-range nukes against Nato targets – London, for instance?
London would be a particularly bad choice. The UK, thank goodness, is a nuclear-armed nation and all of Russia would shortly cease to exist without the need for the rest of Nato to do anything. Russia's cities would not survive like Hiroshima and Nagasaki: strategic megaton weapons are a different ball game.
Maybe Putin might seek to back down the West by hitting some other, non-nuclear Nato nation: but Nato responds to an attack on one as if to an attack on all. There are various ways that could play out, but it would probably end the same way as a strategic attack on the UK: with no more Russia.
Gerasimov and other powerful men in Moscow know all this. They also know that if Putin orders and they disagree, they must kill him before he kills them.
They know, too, that it is Putin who would carry the can for Russian defeat in Ukraine, not them.
Going nuclear could work out better for Vladimir Putin than this, especially if the US didn't react effectively. Nonetheless it's a plan which puts his personal survival at severe risk. If he's thinking straight he will do almost anything else.
www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-why-vladimir-putin-would-be-a-fool-to-go-nuclear-in-ukraine/XZD73H63TR7OBJ7MIJYQFFYTJU/
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Post by em on Oct 3, 2022 6:00:20 GMT 12
The crazy rhetoric and bluster is rapidly disappearing on the national brainwash show
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Post by em on Oct 3, 2022 6:21:46 GMT 12
Excuse the tweets but I’m finding you see stuff minutes after it happens . Looks like more than few young blokes in that crowd are struggling to hold back their mirth .
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ukraine
Oct 3, 2022 8:52:57 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by eri on Oct 3, 2022 8:52:57 GMT 12
Current thinking seems that if Putin uses a small nuc. the west won't need to reply in kind
They'll just use their stand-off capabilities to hit every Russian target in Ukraine
Or take Kaliningrad etc
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ukraine
Oct 4, 2022 19:41:49 GMT 12
Post by eri on Oct 4, 2022 19:41:49 GMT 12
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ukraine
Oct 5, 2022 16:25:09 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by Fogg on Oct 5, 2022 16:25:09 GMT 12
Yes. Unfortunately my earlier analysis that’s he’s unlikely to use nukes might now be off the mark - reason being the annexation of the 4 regions last week makes it more complicated. He would now argue that he is defending Russian territory (even if that claim is dodgy under sham elections etc). Plus he’s been heard to cite America’s previous use of nukes in WWII saying that “gives precedent”.
Despite that, I still think even if he lets off a couple tacticals on the new border between Ukraine and the recently annexed regions, that NATO will still aim to respond conventionally.
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