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ukraine
Oct 5, 2022 20:17:18 GMT 12
Post by fish on Oct 5, 2022 20:17:18 GMT 12
Yes. Unfortunately my earlier analysis that’s he’s unlikely to use nukes might now be off the mark - reason being the annexation of the 4 regions last week makes it more complicated. He would now argue that he is defending Russian territory (even if that claim is dodgy under sham elections etc). Plus he’s been heard to cite America’s previous use of nukes in WWII saying that “gives precedent”. Despite that, I still think even if he lets off a couple tacticals on the new border between Ukraine and the recently annexed regions, that NATO will still aim to respond conventionally. One of the main comments I've noted analysist make is that: A) He has made bad decisions already, and B) There is no logic or strategy to any of the decisions he's recently made, So, He could literally do anything. We could apply logic or strategy to try and determine what he might do, but he doesn't appear to be applying either of those attributes to his decisions. Interesting times. I do agree with your point that Nato are most likely to only respond with conventional weapons. The US alone has enough hardware in the area to completely obliterate the Russian Army in Ukraine in 1 day, if they are drawn into it. And that is not counting the rest of Europe, who's front yard this actually is. There is no benefit of Nato responding with nukes, but there is a massive downside in the risk of escalation to a full blown nuclear war. And we all know the theory of mutually assured destruction... |
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Post by em on Oct 6, 2022 7:23:19 GMT 12
Sometimes it can feel a bit like watching a rugby game or a tv show . It’s shit like this that’s a sobering reminder that our social issues here in NZ are petty by comparison .
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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ukraine
Oct 6, 2022 7:40:21 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2022 7:40:21 GMT 12
Sometimes it can feel a bit like watching a rugby game or a tv show . It’s shit like this that’s a sobering reminder that our social issues here in NZ are petty by comparison . I dunno brah ... Word bombs, social policy's bombs, or any " Stalinda bimbo bombs, could kill more humans, long term, than a Sputin micro nuke! |
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ukraine
Oct 6, 2022 13:54:10 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by Fogg on Oct 6, 2022 13:54:10 GMT 12
Yes. Unfortunately my earlier analysis that’s he’s unlikely to use nukes might now be off the mark - reason being the annexation of the 4 regions last week makes it more complicated. He would now argue that he is defending Russian territory (even if that claim is dodgy under sham elections etc). Plus he’s been heard to cite America’s previous use of nukes in WWII saying that “gives precedent”. Despite that, I still think even if he lets off a couple tacticals on the new border between Ukraine and the recently annexed regions, that NATO will still aim to respond conventionally. One of the main comments I've noted analysist make is that: A) He has made bad decisions already, and B) There is no logic or strategy to any of the decisions he's recently made, So, He could literally do anything. We could apply logic or strategy to try and determine what he might do, but he doesn't appear to be applying either of those attributes to his decisions. Interesting times. I do agree with your point that Nato are most likely to only respond with conventional weapons. The US alone has enough hardware in the area to completely obliterate the Russian Army in Ukraine in 1 day, if they are drawn into it. And that is not counting the rest of Europe, who's front yard this actually is. There is no benefit of Nato responding with nukes, but there is a massive downside in the risk of escalation to a full blown nuclear war. And we all know the theory of mutually assured destruction... NATO could (would) also exterminate all Russia’s ships in the Black Sea as well as taking out all their invading land forces. Agree there’s no comfort in applying conventional logic to predict his next move. Yes, he could do anything including escalate or U-turn. After all, he has no political opposition to ridicule him for any decision or change of direction. |
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ukraine
Oct 6, 2022 14:05:46 GMT 12
via mobile
Post by Fogg on Oct 6, 2022 14:05:46 GMT 12
The other interesting aspect to using tactical nukes, is that they are mostly not in the field ‘ready to go’ but would need to be brought out of storage. This would involve a chain of command - which might break down and refuse to obey - but even if it happened NATO would see these steps preparatory steps happening and be ready to counter immediately. In other words there would be a warning period of a few hours - which is traditionally regarded as the ultimate deterrent signal and might cause the Ukrainians to stop their progress and even retreat a bit, in the hope it stops a nuke being launched.
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ukraine
Oct 6, 2022 16:00:14 GMT 12
Post by eri on Oct 6, 2022 16:00:14 GMT 12
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ukraine
Oct 6, 2022 16:18:55 GMT 12
Post by em on Oct 6, 2022 16:18:55 GMT 12
That turned out to be a false flag . Train was loaded with trucks and BMPs |
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Post by eri on Oct 7, 2022 7:55:56 GMT 12
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Post by em on Oct 7, 2022 9:04:54 GMT 12
The UKRs have actually set up a hotline for Russian soldiers to call for controlled surrender , there is speculation that is what happened in this case . May be why it looks a bit choreographed in the video . Also if you look closely the unit commander appears to be a woman , the UKR one that is !
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Post by em on Oct 7, 2022 9:10:02 GMT 12
They are really admitting to being under the pump . There is only state tv at the Moment and they spout shit all day . On another clip I saw the commentators are telling Russians to stop complaining on social media because it’s valuable intel for the “west”
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ukraine
Oct 7, 2022 12:00:52 GMT 12
Post by eri on Oct 7, 2022 12:00:52 GMT 12
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Post by em on Oct 9, 2022 7:38:47 GMT 12
The Kerch bridge which links Crimea to mainland Russia and was built AFTER the invasion and annexation in 2014 has been whacked with a truck bomb just as a fuel train was passing over on the rail bridge .
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Post by em on Oct 9, 2022 7:39:55 GMT 12
As it happened …
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ukraine
Oct 10, 2022 7:17:08 GMT 12
Post by em on Oct 10, 2022 7:17:08 GMT 12
polar opposite propaganda / speech
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ukraine
Oct 10, 2022 9:29:12 GMT 12
Post by eri on Oct 10, 2022 9:29:12 GMT 12
putin calls attack on very strategic bridge an act of terrorism
so fires revenge rockets into apartment buildings of no strategic value, confirming he's been the terrorist here
not really surprising as his war from the very beginning has been absolutely full of terrorist acts
even if he does survive as leader/dictator of russia
the west, like zelinsky, should start stepping away from dealing directly with him
no negotiation with terrorists
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