Weather

Was just thinking how it's another windy day here.

But then saw the brew building over in the gulf of Mexico.

x.com/wxnb_/status/1843699745300304237?s=61&t=yFkzCNMWRCaVt1p5eRxUog

Nice breeze blow down the length of Wattle Farm from the Manakau.
The DF65's are sailing on with their A rigs, a IOM has its B rig on, I will probably go with a #4 or 5 on the Mini 40 when the other turn up at midday.

WTF is this?

Some kind of weather event happening in Cook St area???

Sounds like a normal season for troppies?

www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2024/10/15/summer-202425-seasonal-outlook

The seasonal shifts are well underway and with this our weather eye shifts from south to north: from the Southern Ocean to the tropics.



Cold fronts are losing their sting as the westerly storm track retracts to the south, while the warming waters off the East Coast are beginning to stir.



Last week, the Bureau of Meteorology released their tropical cyclone outlook, forecasting an average year of tropical cyclone activity region-wide (eleven to be exact).







A glimpse of what's to come this summer (Greg Neverka)



However, of the four Australian cyclone regions, only one is a consistent swell producer - the Eastern Region - and even it doesn't extend very far offshore. Its eastern boundary includes Lord Howe Island, but not Norfolk Island, New Caledonia, or at least half of the Coral Sea.



This is important as the best swell-producing cyclones usually form in the distant Coral Sea, or they deepen there. This means they're not accounted for in the BOM's seasonal outlook.



Therefore, if East Coast surfers are to get a better sense of what to expect we've got to look further afield, into the South Pacific basin, specifically the region north of New Zealand, extending west into the Coral Sea.



All things considered, this cyclone region has the greatest influence on East Coast surf, especially when considering the potential for systems to spread swell energy down the New South Wales coast.



Recently, New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) put together their tropical cyclone outlook for surrounding waters and it provides a more useful outlook for the swell generating regions in question.







2024/2025 Tropical Cyclone Outlook (NIWA)



The outlook shows the majority of possible cyclone activity forming to the east and north-east of the country which is favourable for swell production across Queensland and northern New South Wales. Compared to long-term averages, the expected activity around New Caledonia and Vanuatu looks to be be normal, with slightly elevated risk around the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand’s North Island.



The outlook revolves around increased sea surface temperatures to Australia’s north-east thanks to a likely La Niña event - albeit a weak one - over the coming months.



Assessing all the regions, those monitored by both Australia and by New Zealand, the outlook for East Coast tropical cyclones still appears average. For surfers that's neither good news nor bad, yet any form of La Niña also increases our odds of swell generation - just not necessarily from tropical cyclones.



La Niña seasons, even weak ones, results in a shift of the subtropical high pressure belt further south than is normal, opening up the East Coast to increased trade-wind and swell activity.



The warmer than normal water building up to the north and east of the country results in increased instability, lower pressure and in turn stronger than normal trade-wind activity when squeezed against the high pressure to the south.



The below image shows the probability of a difference in Mean Sea Level Pressure from the long term average over the months January, February, and March

I see a nasty little tight tropical low appears to be forming up on the models just south of Fiji over the next 12 to 24 hrs.
Could be nasty for boats trying to get south.

Leave Tues and park up at Minerva for a few days??

This morning's forecast update has Tuesday looking better for departure from Fiji as long as yachts take their time to let the low passing across NZ on the weekend pass under them.
Will just need to keep an eye on wave height on the back of the low.