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Post by em on Nov 6, 2024 18:32:08 GMT 12
So with a Trump and GOP win looking likely , aid to Ukraine will trickle out in January . Where will the NZ and Aus Govt allegiance lie if European countries and the UK step into the void ? . I don’t think the ANZUS alliance will matter or even register with the current GOP .
The other biggie is China and Taiwan . Trump talks a big talk in regards to China but Elon won’t want a war over a Taiwan becuase business . Trump likes little kim so what will happen with the US/japan/South Korea alliance currently holding North Korea in check ? . Where will NZ and Aus and the indo pacific stand if Japan , South Korea and Taiwan go on a war footing with China and North Korea due to a US pull back .
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Post by fish on Nov 6, 2024 19:03:02 GMT 12
So with a Trump and GOP win looking likely , aid to Ukraine will trickle out in January . Where will the NZ and Aus Govt allegiance lie if European countries and the UK step into the void ? . I don’t think the ANZUS alliance will matter or even register with the current GOP . The other biggie is China and Taiwan . Trump talks a big talk in regards to China but Elon won’t want a war over a Taiwan becuase business . Trump likes little kim so what will happen with the US/japan/South Korea alliance currently holding North Korea in check ? . Where will NZ and Aus and the indo pacific stand if Japan , South Korea and Taiwan go on a war footing with China and North Korea due to a US pull back . There are a lot of questions. I think the only certainty will be volatility. I have an economics question. Trump was been talking about tariffs left right and centre. But he has also been going on about how bad inflation was under the last guy. Tariffs drive inflation. It is physically impossible for them not to. So, how does that work? How can he put tariffs on almost everything and not turbo boost inflation? |
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Post by em on Nov 6, 2024 19:23:13 GMT 12
So with a Trump and GOP win looking likely , aid to Ukraine will trickle out in January . Where will the NZ and Aus Govt allegiance lie if European countries and the UK step into the void ? . I don’t think the ANZUS alliance will matter or even register with the current GOP . The other biggie is China and Taiwan . Trump talks a big talk in regards to China but Elon won’t want a war over a Taiwan becuase business . Trump likes little kim so what will happen with the US/japan/South Korea alliance currently holding North Korea in check ? . Where will NZ and Aus and the indo pacific stand if Japan , South Korea and Taiwan go on a war footing with China and North Korea due to a US pull back . There are a lot of questions. I think the only certainty will be volatility. I have an economics question. Trump was been talking about tariffs left right and centre. But he has also been going on about how bad inflation was under the last guy. Tariffs drive inflation. It is physically impossible for them not to. So, how does that work? How can he put tariffs on almost everything and not turbo boost inflation? The same way he wins every Golf tournament ? |
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Post by Cantab on Nov 6, 2024 19:43:24 GMT 12
I don't think the tariff thing is going to happen, not as stated anyway, they sound good politically but no one in charge accepts they are good for the consumer.
There will be negotiations, threats, minor actions to back up the threats. Trump is about making deals. Deals take negotiating, you need credibility to get your way. Nobody wants big tariffs, but they are a pretty good bargaining chip while playing poker.
Trump managed to get blue collar jobs on the rise last time, he's got a much more talented political team with him this time.
Sort of hoping for a Milei type of lead. Going to be a lot of fightback but its sort of a read the room situation, you want to keep your job you better get with the program. Even our Government knows the quickest way to get rid of a problem is to stop funding it.
Musk knows how to get big organisations to perform, others in the team know politics pretty well and are well respected by many.
This may also be the wakeup Europe and the UK need to get back on track too, I don't think the US will be exerting its wishes quite so oppressively around the world, much cheaper to make friends and do deals than send in the military. China learnt this long ago.
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Post by fish on Nov 6, 2024 19:51:41 GMT 12
Apologies for putting the tariffs question in this thread, probably should have put it in the Merican Politics thread, but it's all about Trump now and I got mixed up.
I think Cantab's points on his negotiation style also covers the various wars around the place. Specifically Ukraine, I think he will just get into brinksmanship and some hard negotiating. Because he is so unpredictable means he has negotiation power. Every other govt work off the same playbook, so their foes can work out what they will do. Not Trump. He is the king of crazy Ivans.
I think in Ukraine he will force Zelensky to give up land, and at the same time tell Russia to accept the deal or he will Nuke Moscow. There is a not unsubstantial risk of how Putin will react to that.
On North Korea, it is beyound me what the problem is. If the US stopped practicing large scale invasions twice a year on the Korean Peninsular, then Kim might not go so hard on the nukes and ICBM programme. I see the problem there as the US, so if Trump gets his guys to back off a bit, things could finally chill out after 70 plus years.
Got no idea what will happen with Israel. I suspect Iran would have wanted Kamala to win though. Trump will be very aggressive and niggly toward Iran, which is a shame, the sooner someone nukes Bibi the better (not the Israeli people, they have a right to live like everyone else, just the corrupt war criminal of a leader, and some of his mates). Such a shame the Israeli people don't confer that basic right to life on their neighbours.
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Post by ComfortZone on Nov 6, 2024 21:14:43 GMT 12
Apologies for putting the tariffs question in this thread, probably should have put it in the Merican Politics thread, but it's all about Trump now and I got mixed up. Got no idea what will happen with Israel. I suspect Iran would have wanted Kamala to win though. Trump will be very aggressive and niggly toward Iran, which is a shame, the sooner someone nukes Bibi the better (not the Israeli people, they have a right to live like everyone else, just the corrupt war criminal of a leader, and some of his mates). Such a shame the Israeli people don't confer that basic right to life on their neighbours. Sounds like you are not aware USA (and Canada) have already put/increased tariffs on some products from China, in particular EVs
You should talk to the Hamas crowd, they certainly do not believe the Israeli people have a right to life, as amply demonstrated by their acts worse than animals last October.
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Post by fish on Nov 7, 2024 7:27:17 GMT 12
You should talk to the Hamas crowd, they certainly do not believe the Israeli people have a right to life, as amply demonstrated by their acts worse than animals last October.
Since when did two wrongs ever make a right? Now you've got Israel carrying out ethnic cleansing with the stated goal of seizing the land and living on it. You've got mass starvation, for 2 million people that cannot physically escape. Do you think any of that is OK? Must be a fairly strange God that says that level of apocalyptical suffering is OK. Bibi has clearly long forgotten about the hostages, as he has done everything in his power to thwart a cease fire. Now sacked the only person in his cabinet who actually had a plan to get the hostages out alive and end the war without complete and utter destruction, oh, and actual peace and security for Israel. The Oct 7 security failings were so bad, and the advantages to Bibi so good, in terms of keeping him in power to avoid the corruption charges and potential 10 years in prison so good, that anyone would think Oct 7 was an inside job. |
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Post by em on Nov 7, 2024 8:52:35 GMT 12
The German coalition Govt is looking like melting down in the next few days . It could be good or bad for Europe’s long term stability , short term it’s not good and RT will definitely run interference .
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Post by ComfortZone on Nov 7, 2024 9:24:12 GMT 12
You should talk to the Hamas crowd, they certainly do not believe the Israeli people have a right to life, as amply demonstrated by their acts worse than animals last October.
Since when did two wrongs ever make a right? Now you've got Israel carrying out ethnic cleansing with the stated goal of seizing the land and living on it. You've got mass starvation, for 2 million people that cannot physically escape. Do you think any of that is OK? Must be a fairly strange God that says that level of apocalyptical suffering is OK. Bibi has clearly long forgotten about the hostages, as he has done everything in his power to thwart a cease fire. Now sacked the only person in his cabinet who actually had a plan to get the hostages out alive and end the war without complete and utter destruction, oh, and actual peace and security for Israel. The Oct 7 security failings were so bad, and the advantages to Bibi so good, in terms of keeping him in power to avoid the corruption charges and potential 10 years in prison so good, that anyone would think Oct 7 was an inside job. This is something we, like many, will always disagree upon.
You seem to want to downplay the disgusting events that set this latest war off, just a reminder excerpt Did watching “Bearing Witness” alter any of my opinions? Yes, it did.
I expected to see men, women and children slaughtered but the level of hatred and barbarity was incomprehensible. Often the mutilation continued after the victim was killed as if that were only one stage in a process that would continue until what was left was unrecognizable. We saw 139 killings or bodies but in many cases the bodies were so disfigured or burned that they ceased to look human.
At the viewing we were joined by an American forensic pathologist who now lives in New Zealand but who volunteered to travel to Israel in the days following the attack to help identify the bodies. She recounted to us that DNA testing was conducted in order to match body parts with the correct bodies as often parts of different victims had been mistakenly bagged together.
It does, I think, at least partially explain Israel’s ferocious response in the year that has followed the attacks. In my view, anyone in the Israeli government or military who viewed that footage would conclude that they face an immediate existential threat. Their enemies do not simply wish to take territory or wage a war - killing was not enough. Their enemies that day wished for the elimination of every Jewish man, woman and child until nothing remained but dust. That was the point that I did not fully appreciate until I saw this footage.
The "civilians" in Gaza were by and large fully supportive of this attack, cheering on as the poor hostages were paraded and inhumanely degraded through the streets.
You use emotive words such as ethnic cleansing and genocide, apart from dodgy death numbers arising from the likes of HAMAS and UNRWA and breathlessly recounted by the likes of The Guardian
You talk about the Gaza people starving, yet there is no shortage of funds to line the bank accounts of the HAMAS hierarchy hiding in their apartments in QATAR, building their elaborate underground networks and the seemingly never ending supply of weapons.
Many of the so called Gazan "civilians" are active participants in the conflict, the Geneva convention says they are then considered as soldiers.
None of the other Arab states want these Gazan's/Palestinians, they know they are nothing but trouble. Look at the smoking ruin they have turned Lebanon into over the decades, once known as "the garden of the Mediterranean". A former colleague of mine in the US managed to escape from there as a teenager, most of his family were murdered by the PLO.
Israel has a land area similar to Tasmania, ie just a drop in the desert. But repeating myself, HAMAS, Hezbollah and their enablers Iran (along with the tacit support of many member countries in the UN) have no desire for peace, only the often stated intention to wipe Israel and the Jewish inhabitants off the face of the earth. That is the reality and just about anybody facing an enemy like that is going to to come out with guns blazing.
Under these circumstances
That's my view and you have your view and in the big scheme of things both count for nothing.
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Post by fish on Nov 7, 2024 18:48:28 GMT 12
Since when did two wrongs ever make a right? Now you've got Israel carrying out ethnic cleansing with the stated goal of seizing the land and living on it. You've got mass starvation, for 2 million people that cannot physically escape. Do you think any of that is OK? Must be a fairly strange God that says that level of apocalyptical suffering is OK. Bibi has clearly long forgotten about the hostages, as he has done everything in his power to thwart a cease fire. Now sacked the only person in his cabinet who actually had a plan to get the hostages out alive and end the war without complete and utter destruction, oh, and actual peace and security for Israel. The Oct 7 security failings were so bad, and the advantages to Bibi so good, in terms of keeping him in power to avoid the corruption charges and potential 10 years in prison so good, that anyone would think Oct 7 was an inside job. This is something we, like many, will always disagree upon.
You seem to want to downplay the disgusting events that set this latest war off, just a reminder excerpt Did watching “Bearing Witness” alter any of my opinions? Yes, it did.
I expected to see men, women and children slaughtered but the level of hatred and barbarity was incomprehensible. Often the mutilation continued after the victim was killed as if that were only one stage in a process that would continue until what was left was unrecognizable. We saw 139 killings or bodies but in many cases the bodies were so disfigured or burned that they ceased to look human.
At the viewing we were joined by an American forensic pathologist who now lives in New Zealand but who volunteered to travel to Israel in the days following the attack to help identify the bodies. She recounted to us that DNA testing was conducted in order to match body parts with the correct bodies as often parts of different victims had been mistakenly bagged together.
It does, I think, at least partially explain Israel’s ferocious response in the year that has followed the attacks. In my view, anyone in the Israeli government or military who viewed that footage would conclude that they face an immediate existential threat. Their enemies do not simply wish to take territory or wage a war - killing was not enough. Their enemies that day wished for the elimination of every Jewish man, woman and child until nothing remained but dust. That was the point that I did not fully appreciate until I saw this footage.
The "civilians" in Gaza were by and large fully supportive of this attack, cheering on as the poor hostages were paraded and inhumanely degraded through the streets.
You use emotive words such as ethnic cleansing and genocide, apart from dodgy death numbers arising from the likes of HAMAS and UNRWA and breathlessly recounted by the likes of The Guardian
You talk about the Gaza people starving, yet there is no shortage of funds to line the bank accounts of the HAMAS hierarchy hiding in their apartments in QATAR, building their elaborate underground networks and the seemingly never ending supply of weapons.
Many of the so called Gazan "civilians" are active participants in the conflict, the Geneva convention says they are then considered as soldiers.
None of the other Arab states want these Gazan's/Palestinians, they know they are nothing but trouble. Look at the smoking ruin they have turned Lebanon into over the decades, once known as "the garden of the Mediterranean". A former colleague of mine in the US managed to escape from there as a teenager, most of his family were murdered by the PLO.
Israel has a land area similar to Tasmania, ie just a drop in the desert. But repeating myself, HAMAS, Hezbollah and their enablers Iran (along with the tacit support of many member countries in the UN) have no desire for peace, only the often stated intention to wipe Israel and the Jewish inhabitants off the face of the earth. That is the reality and just about anybody facing an enemy like that is going to to come out with guns blazing.
Under these circumstances
That's my view and you have your view and in the big scheme of things both count for nothing.
I am bemused that I even need to try and convince you that this level of savagery is wrong and morally reprehensible. You are right, it looks like we will always disagree on this. But there are a few things I'd like to say. Saying Hamas has lots of money and therefore could somehow feed Gaza misses the fundamental point of the Israeli blockade. The Gazans are trapped there, which makes it different from every other conflict where people can flee, including the large proportion of Israelis who have left, and by example the Lebanese fleeing to Syria. The bit you and a lot of people seem to be missing is the level of savagery Israel is metering out in return to Hamas. We could trade blows on truely sickening examples. Palestinian Red Crescent had to use a young kids school bag to put her body parts into after Israel blew her to bits. Israel have been using drones to shoot kids in the street, and when adults come out to help them, they all get bombed. They are using children as bait to kill the adults. And that example came from the UN, not some unreliable media source. Which probably explains why Israel declared the UN a terrorist organisation, and has such strong track record for assassinating journalists, as well as shooting up the UN Observation Bases in Southern Lebanon. They don't want you to know the atrocities they are performing. Anyway, my point is two wrongs don't make a right. I don't feel I am using emotive words when I say ethnic cleansing and genocide. I feel I am stating a fact. Israel's Security Minister, the one that Israel itself declared a terrorist, has been very open about wanting to settle Gaza. They have been holding conferences and strategising it out. All they need to do is get rid of the people that are currently there. Que complete siege of Northern Gaza. It is abundantly clear they are wanting to cleanse Gaza and the West Bank of the people that are currently living there. It is not emotive, that is stating a fact. Stepping aside from the moral rhetoric and looking at what is going on objectively. Bibi's strategy is not working, as measured against his publicly stated goals. It has been over a year and they haven't saved the hostages. The only ones they got out was via a deal, prisoner swaps. Three escaped but where then shot by the Israel Defense Force. To be fair they may have rescued I think 6(?) in a military action in Rafah, but otherwise militarily they have been a complete failure in rescuing hostages. The other objective was to destroy Hamas. Well, they've killed the Head, 2IC and a large number of others and turned all of Gaza into an apocalyptical wasteland. So is that job not done? Hence why it looks like they are just there now for the ethnic cleansing so Itamar Ben-Gvir and his mates can score some land they don't need to get a mortgage for. Then you have Yoav Gallant. Minister for Defense and just sacked by Bibi. He has been argueing that the only way to save the hostages is via a deal. Militarily Israel can't fight in the tunnels and can't find them, hence they need a deal. Hezbollah, the goat herders and everyone else say they will stop firing shit at Israel if Israel stop ther atrocities in Gaza. Sounds fair to me. There is a curious political situation where Bibi needs these far rights extremists for him to stay in power. These guys just want to burn the whole place down. Bibi wants to stay in power cause as soon as he is out of power he is facing the corruption charges and potentially 10 years in prison. So he carries on with the war and giving Itamar Ben-Gvir and the other extremists what they want. Yoav Gallant was the only one talking sense, and he's been booted. Note I am not contesting Israel's right to defend itself. I am stating Israel has gone way to far. And they are going way too far because of the political situation with Bibi, not for security reasons, as stated by Yoav Gallant. CZ, I normally pay a lot of attention to your opinion, but I really feel you are wrong on this one. Given basically none of this is being covered on MSM now, perhaps you are ignorant of just how far Israel are going? I'd like to challenge you to read Al Jazera for a couple of days and see what you think. I can understand where you are coming from with the anger around 7th Oct, but Israel are topping that on a weekly basis now. I'm hoping if you read Al Jazera for a bit, you may see where I am coming from as well. Two wrongs don't make a right. |
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Post by fish on Nov 7, 2024 18:58:25 GMT 12
Itamar Ben-Gvir (Hebrew: אִיתָמָר בֶּן גְּבִיר, [itaˈmaʁ benˈgviʁ]; born 6 May 1976) is an Israeli far-right politician and lawyer who has served as the Minister of National Security since 2022.[2][3] He is the leader of Otzma Yehudit, a Kahanist and anti-Arab party that won six seats in the 2022 Israeli legislative election, and is part of what is widely regarded as the most right-wing government in Israel's history.[4][5][6][7]
Ben-Gvir is a settler in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, whose "political background lies in Kahanism - a violently racist movement that supports the expulsion of Palestinians from their lands".[8] He has a long history of anti-Arab activism leading to dozens of indictments and at least eight convictions of crimes including incitement to racism, possession of propaganda for a terrorist organization (the now illegal political party Kach) and support for a terrorist organisation (also Kach).[9] As a lawyer, he is known for defending Jews accused of Jewish extremist terrorism on trial in Israel.[10]
Ben-Gvir is known for being a provocateur and has grabbed headlines for a variety of reasons; threatening Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin on live television in 1995 (Rabin was assassinated shortly after that), having had a portrait in his living room of Baruch Goldstein, a Jewish extremist terrorist and mass murderer, calling for the expulsion of Arab citizens of Israel who are not loyal to Israel in 2019,[7] inciting violent clashes between Jewish settlers and Palestinians in the East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Sheikh Jarrah in 2021, and for making highly controversial visits to the Temple Mount, where the al-Aqsa Mosque is located, in 2023 and 2024.[11]
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Post by fish on Nov 7, 2024 19:03:37 GMT 12
On 7 Oct being an inside job, how is it that Israel, Mossad et al have the ability to intercept shipments of pagers, and detonate them when they want, find an assissinate almost anyone they want, either in Lebanon or Iran, have a complete police state and have by far the worlds best surveillance technology, but couldn't tell a bunch of guys living in a large paddock right under their noses were planning an attack.
Even after soldiers in the watch towers surrounding Gaza reported seeing training events for the attack.
Could it be that the Minister of Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, actually wanted the attack to happen so he could then use that as a pretext to cleanse Gaza and take the land for his own?
Or could it be that Bibi wanted it to happen so that he could stay in power and not face the corruption trial?
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Post by ComfortZone on Nov 8, 2024 8:12:29 GMT 12
This is something we, like many, will always disagree upon.
You seem to want to downplay the disgusting events that set this latest war off, just a reminder
CZ, I normally pay a lot of attention to your opinion, but I really feel you are wrong on this one. Given basically none of this is being covered on MSM now, perhaps you are ignorant of just how far Israel are going? I'd like to challenge you to read Al Jazera for a couple of days and see what you think. I can understand where you are coming from with the anger around 7th Oct, but Israel are topping that on a weekly basis now. I'm hoping if you read Al Jazera for a bit, you may see where I am coming from as well. Two wrongs don't make a right. I should not need to remind you of my disdain for the MSM. Al Jazeera, that's the media network based in QATAR, supported, if not owned, by the QATAR government, the government that promotes terrorism and protects terrorists including HAMAS (well many now departed) and Hezbollah terrorist leaders. Al Jazeera has been only too supportive of HAMAS and, in the past, ISIS. It has also been caught out with alot of other dodgy reporting around the world over the years, even in Australia. Given that background I hardly see them providing an objective perspective.
You have a real "thing" about Netanyahu, but never write any criticism of HAMAS, the Gazans, Hezebollah or Iran. You say 2 wrongs don't make a right, so it would appear you are implying Israel should have just accepted the brutal murder and degradation of its people without any response. I somehow don't think so, if you were put in "a backs to the wall" situation like this, particularly as we all know the HAMAS/ Hezbollah/Iran goal is to wipe Israel off the map.
We can just go round and round in circles on this, not going to change anything. You have your views which I disagree with, I have mine which you likewise disagree with.
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Post by GO30 on Nov 8, 2024 8:25:35 GMT 12
This did not start on Oct 7th, it's been going on for years.
Both sides are reaping what both sides have sown.
The only ones paying the price are innocents.
To defend in any manner the needless bombing and murdering of innocents says a lot about those doing it.
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Post by Cantab on Nov 8, 2024 10:54:39 GMT 12
34kg of explosives per resident, dropped on Gaza, or something like that, pretty sure I reposted that somewhere.
I have no support for either side of this war.
Supporting either side is morally wrong, supporting others who support either side is also wrong.
More killing does not lead to less killing in any good way.
Supporting those trying to create dialogue is the correct action
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