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Post by fish on Sept 7, 2022 9:52:07 GMT 12
Its kicking off. Russia permanently shut NordStream 1, blame sanctions... Turning the screws. This paragraph is gold: Germany, meanwhile, is actively looking to differentiate its source of energy. On Monday, the government said it would keep two nuclear plants on standby beyond the end of the year, in a policy U-turn. Germany had decided to abandon nuclear energy in 2011 under former Chancellor Angela Merkel in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/5/russian-gas-flows-halted-until-europe-lift-sanctionsHow is that gold ? Despite best intentions, they still need nuclear. Note that the plants and the risk is still there, regardless of if they use them for power generation. The risk of nuclear remains for a long time once a plant is constructed. New risk is related to new plants. The reactors are still active, they just have the rods shoved in. Cooling water is required 24/7, so if there was a Fukishema style earthquake, they can still loose ability to cool the reactors, or spill radio-active cooling water, etc, etc. My point really is that, with regard to climate change, nuclear is the best power out there. Yes it has some other major drawbacks, but for greenhouse gas, it is the best. And the other reason that is gold, is that Putin is forcing Germany to do things it does not want to do. Publicly. In terms of the great geo-political game of chess, Putin is in charge. Putin really has Europe over a barrel. Italy, the UK, France etc are all running out multi-billion dollar subsidy programmes to stop their economies imploding from Putin's gas prices. If you close 6 in 10 factories, your GDP and employment is going to collapse. If you can't heat homes, people are going to freeze to death. I don't think it will be long and the EU will be grovelling cap in hand to Putin. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. |
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Post by Cantab on Sept 7, 2022 10:37:03 GMT 12
It's not putins gas prices, Russia will still sell it to you at the Normal price, some countries would rather starve and freeze their people than do that
The link a while back explains the market quite well.
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Post by fish on Sept 7, 2022 10:39:45 GMT 12
Not in Europe, but the very same logic as Germany's Nuclear power plants. California gets its power from solar and gas powered power plants. The solar drops off in the afternoon / evening, when everyone is running air-con flat out in their heat wave. Governor announces state of emergency, and changes legislation requiring their nuclear plant not to shut down in 2025... Along with some power imported from out of state, California’s energy grid mostly runs on a combination of solar power and natural gas during the day. But solar power begins to fall off in the late afternoon and into the evening, and ageing natural gas plants that the state relies on for backup become less reliable in hot weather. Governor Gavin Newsom has signed legislation that could allow California’s last nuclear plant to stay open beyond its planned 2025 closure to make more power available. www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/6/heatwave-pushes-californias-energy-grid-to-its-limitsParadoxically, there is probably a bigger risk chopping and changing the policy on nuclear. Problems come about if you don't maintain them properly. All the pumps, valves, monitoring transducers etc for cooling water, monitoring and control. If a plant is planned for shut down, then they will stop / ramp down the planned maintenance and renewal programmes. If they then decide to keep it running, they have a back log of renewals to do, either that or they run things beyond their design life. I'm talking all the myriad of little ancillary items. Remember 3 mile island went wrong because they blew shit into a pitot tube, then a relief valve got stuck in the open position and the couldn't pump cooling water into the reactor. They couldn't tell the relief valve was stuck open, case the pitot tube was giving false readings. Nekminnit... |
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Post by GO30 on Sept 7, 2022 14:30:39 GMT 12
Its kicking off. Russia permanently shut NordStream 1, blame sanctions... Turning the screws Ouch, this could get messy now.
That suggest Putin is confident the EU or Nato countries won't join the Ukraine. He may just be right, they do seen very Jacinda i.e talk big, walk micro if at all.
If I was Putin I'd have turned it off a while ago while making sure the EU knew I had put all my missiles on red alert with fingers on triggers. Or start sending happy gas down the pipeline instead, that could be fun to watch  |
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Post by fish on Sept 8, 2022 10:11:21 GMT 12
Question:
The UK, Italy, France, infact all of Europe, are pouring Billions into subsidizing gas so their industries don't collapse.
But don't all of these countries have emissions trading schemes that put a tax on gas?
Have they or will they drop the ETS taxes on gas? and if they have, doesn't that put NZ at a direct competitive disadvantage?
Surely sky high gas prices is a Greenies wet-dream? Their ultimate fantasy? Isn't this what James Shaw has wanted and worked for all along?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2022 11:08:20 GMT 12
Absolutely Fish.
But at the same time Europe are giving the bird to the CC environmental loonies.
But where is Off Shore Shaw?
363 days of the year he is MIA , 2 days at a conference .. WTF does the useless prick do?
Here's his moment in the sun.... Nothing!
Why do people vote for this useless mob of fuckwits!?
They have achieved F all!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2022 11:12:06 GMT 12
Its kicking off. Russia permanently shut NordStream 1, blame sanctions... Turning the screws Ouch, this could get messy now.
That suggest Putin is confident the EU or Nato countries won't join the Ukraine. He may just be right, they do seen very Jacinda i.e talk big, walk micro if at all.
If I was Putin I'd have turned it off a while ago while making sure the EU knew I had put all my missiles on red alert with fingers on triggers. Or start sending happy gas down the pipeline instead, that could be fun to watch Wrong. Europe are signing deal with Qatar and Aussie for gas...as we speak. Storage is being built across Europe that will tap into the pipeline. Putin is panicking and when he panics he goes even harder at the targets Putin will have no gas business in the euro within 5 years |
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Post by fish on Sept 8, 2022 11:19:52 GMT 12
Ouch, this could get messy now.
That suggest Putin is confident the EU or Nato countries won't join the Ukraine. He may just be right, they do seen very Jacinda i.e talk big, walk micro if at all.
If I was Putin I'd have turned it off a while ago while making sure the EU knew I had put all my missiles on red alert with fingers on triggers. Or start sending happy gas down the pipeline instead, that could be fun to watch Wrong. Europe are signing deal with Qatar and Aussie for gas...as we speak. Storage is being built across Europe that will tap into the pipeline. Putin is panicking and when he panics he goes even harder at the targets Putin will have no gas business in the euro within 5 years I'll bet you a good bottle of whisky they can't build the storage they need in time for this winter. 5 yrs time anything could happen. It is this winter that is the crunch point. Highly likely people in western europe will die from the cold / freezing this winter. Not to mention how many companies will shift manufacturing to China (where they use Russian gas...) |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2022 12:12:08 GMT 12
All they need to do is have a stream of ships feeding the ports and keeping ahead of demand.
In essence the ships,in a way, become part of the storage..
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Post by ComfortZone on Sept 8, 2022 12:48:47 GMT 12
All they need to do is have a stream of ships feeding the ports and keeping ahead of demand. In essence the ships,in a way, become part of the storage.. It's a little more complicated than that. LNG has to be "manufactured", it does not just come out of a pipe. As I mentioned previously all LNG plants are constructed on the basis of a long term supply contract, so all that LNG is typically spoken for. It is not as if there is a large surplus just waiting for a spot buyer. Building an LNG plant, including permitting, takes in the order of 7 years. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2022 13:35:44 GMT 12
What you smoking CZ?...
Qatar and Aussie already are manufacturing LNG in huge Volumes. They just need to get enough LNG carriers to ship it in a continuous " flow"... There's plenty of idle ships of China's coast..
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2022 13:38:59 GMT 12
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Post by ComfortZone on Sept 8, 2022 15:12:08 GMT 12
What you smoking CZ?... Qatar and Aussie already are manufacturing LNG in huge Volumes. They just need to get enough LNG carriers to ship it in a continuous " flow"... There's plenty of idle ships of China's coast.. AquaH maaaaate, you are not reading what I am writing, in the case of Australia they produce a shed load of LNG (mainly Woodside, but now some facilities on East Coast), but most of that production is already contracted ie sold, to long term customers. There is not a huge amount of "surplus" product to sell elsewhere. |
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Post by fish on Sept 8, 2022 20:38:45 GMT 12
What you smoking CZ?... Qatar and Aussie already are manufacturing LNG in huge Volumes. They just need to get enough LNG carriers to ship it in a continuous " flow"... There's plenty of idle ships of China's coast.. How long does it take to build a ship alchy? And have you worked out how many ships you need? The pipeline, the one that has just been shut down, normally runs 24/7. That was one of two on the same route. There are a dozen or so other pipelines to different parts of Europe. Then, what is the transit time of a ship from East Coast Aust to Europe? 3 weeks?, then return, empty, another 3 weeks. Plus loading time, unloading time. That is before we get to terminal space. So, to have one ship delivery a day in Europe from Aust, you will need 50 ships. And 50 crews. And 50 captains. The main problem is, there is simply not 50 LNG ships sitting around with nothing to do. Nor crews. And then the killer question, who pays for all these ships? on top of the premium paid for the gas? Its going to be an expensive winter keeping the house warm in Britain this year. I haven't worked out how many mega-joules a ship holds, but I'm fairly sure one ship a day wont even touch the sides of Europe's gas requirements. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2022 23:49:32 GMT 12
For want if a better solution that's what they are doing...
Europe uses 397 billion cubes PA
Aussie and Qatar produce 183 million tonnes of LNG PA.
USA 80 million
World suppliers current and proposed volumes...
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