|
Post by ComfortZone on Oct 20, 2023 11:08:59 GMT 12
OK team, we are on our way, you can follow progress on our tracker here forecast.predictwind.com/tracking/display/Comfort_Zone?windSymbol=WindStreamlines&weatherSource=ECMWF&mapMode=useGooglelatest advice from Bruce the weatherman is The weather is still looking good for the passage and good to get you through the narrow gaps in the reefs ahead. There is a 6 knot SW wind being reported from the Isle of Pines. The weather radar at Noumea shows a west-east oriented line of showers at about the latitude of the south of the island close to you but these showers should not cause any issues. There is very little behind them. So your winds should be SW 05/10 knots then ease from the SSW to 03/08 knots late afternoon to evening. This should allow you to head directly for North Cape once outside the reef system. Then during Saturday morning the SW winds should rise to 06/10 knots then gradually tend more SSW as the day progresses and become southerly 07/11 knots near sunset. This will force you further to the east. Saturday evening you should have a SSE wind 08/13 knots with these winds rising to SSE/SE 10/15 knots near sunrise Sunday. Once winds shift to the SSE you would tack to the SSW. By Sunday afternoon the winds should be turning SE to ESE 12/17 knots, allowing a more southerly heading. These winds should tend ESE 13/18 knots through the night and tend easterly 15/20 knots Monday morning. After this there will be a moderation of the winds as a high moves past and the winds tend NE then N. By Wednesday afternoon or Thursday you should get into NNW winds that should last through to NZ.
Looks like we will be motoring for a while. Back on line in a week - there is a Starlink waiting at home for me . cheers CZ
|
|
|
Post by GO30 on Oct 20, 2023 13:52:20 GMT 12
May your winds be forever 18-20kts over an aft quarter.
|
|
|
Post by Fogg on Oct 20, 2023 19:18:36 GMT 12
Bon Voyage.
I’ll be in Europe by the time you reach NZ (plane not a fast boat) 😊
|
|
|
Post by Fogg on Oct 23, 2023 0:24:37 GMT 12
Just landed London. Looks like TC 01P now named “Lola” has potential to become quite strong 100-125kts but helpfully for CZ looks like Lola will remain slow-moving 6-7kts and start curling SW quite quickly.
Fingers crossed currently looks unlikely Lola will come very much further south than Vanuatu before hooking west and dying out. 🤞
|
|
|
Post by GO30 on Oct 23, 2023 8:02:11 GMT 12
There could be a tricky wind change kick in fast in a couple of days.
They have predict wind satellite on board haven't they?
|
|
|
Post by sabre on Oct 23, 2023 19:31:52 GMT 12
He should be in by Friday midday and miss the nasty stuff I reckon. I imagine it would motivate some efficient sailing though having that following you home.
|
|
|
Post by Fogg on Oct 24, 2023 17:42:14 GMT 12
Latest PW shows Lola a long way north but then suddenly accelerates south towards NZ around Fri night / Sat morning
|
|
|
Post by fish on Oct 26, 2023 8:23:30 GMT 12
Not sure to put this post here or in the Weather thread.
Bit of shit weather coming in for all the boats returning from the Islands. Island Cruising Association have seen the need to put a warning out.
Cold front coming up, affecting boats just north of NZ around Saturday-ish, with strong winds right on the nose. Then the remains of that cyclone come through about Sunday / Monday, giving gale easterlies and associated sack of shit.
Below is the latest from Comfort Zone from his tracker. Looks like they will get home in time...
Wednesday 25 Oct Wed Oct 25 2023
Currently rolling along under motor and looks like that will be the story for at least the next 24 hrs. Skies are clear and sunny as they were most of yesterday. There seems to be a problem with displaying our track on the tracker page, we think this is a PredictWind problem and have raised a support request with them. Can’t seem to escape IT problems even at sea. We are on course for our planned landfall off Cape Brett which looks to be early Friday morning. Distance to go to Whangarei Heads is approx 330 miles.
|
|
|
Post by fish on Oct 26, 2023 8:25:47 GMT 12
|
|
|
Post by sabre on Oct 26, 2023 13:29:20 GMT 12
CZ will be fine but feel for those further back. Hope they are well prepared.
|
|
|
Post by ComfortZone on Oct 27, 2023 4:16:07 GMT 12
Morning all, 5.00am to be precise, just passed Mimiwhangata heading for Marsden Cove. Had a bit of excitement couple of hours ago with a squall just to the south of Cape Brett, peaked at 33kts, we had reefed main and 3/4 unrolled genoa poled out at the time, CZ took it in her stride peaking at 12kts. Looking to be in Marsden mid to late morning, will clear customs and head off for Sandspit immediately before the wind shifts too far. Bruce's advice to leave New Caledonia earlier than we originally intended was spot on. The passage was rather tedious, 4 days hard on the wind, 2 days motoring with just a decent sail since midday yesterday. Feel really sad for the people in Vanuatu hit by the cyclone, we had seen first hand all the work put in to rebuild after the 2 cyclones earlier this year and now this.
|
|
|
Post by Fogg on Oct 27, 2023 5:27:26 GMT 12
Well done for making it safely back. Enjoy the celebratory beer! Cheers from The Ivy Tower Bridge 😊
|
|
|
Post by GO30 on Oct 27, 2023 11:26:42 GMT 12
Morning all, 5.00am to be precise, just passed Mimiwhangata heading for Marsden Cove. Had a bit of excitement couple of hours ago with a squall just to the south of Cape Brett, peaked at 33kts, we had reefed main and 3/4 unrolled genoa poled out at the time, CZ took it in her stride peaking at 12kts. Looking to be in Marsden mid to late morning, will clear customs and head off for Sandspit immediately before the wind shifts too far. Bruce's advice to leave New Caledonia earlier than we originally intended was spot on. The passage was rather tedious, 4 days hard on the wind, 2 days motoring with just a decent sail since midday yesterday. Feel really sad for the people in Vanuatu hit by the cyclone, we had seen first hand all the work put in to rebuild after the 2 cyclones earlier this year and now this. It's always good to see a boat arrive at it's destination. Also I'd think your timing of that arrival is very bloody good considering what's chasing you.
Nicely done sir.
Strangely enough I don't mind a day of motoring out in the deep blue. They are usually very tame so a good day for housekeeping, swimming, deep fishing as oppose to trawling and as the work load is near nothing whack on Ray the auto driver before whipping out the goodies for a wee cocktail session.
|
|
|
Post by muzled on Oct 30, 2023 6:42:52 GMT 12
Further to your point in the other thread about paying for a weather forecaster CZ, and with the benefit of hindsight now/purely out of interest...
- If you hadn't have paid for the advice, would you still have left at the same time with that troppy in the coral sea and the current blow brewing?
And what would have happened if you'd stayed put? Would you have gotten bashed up while you waited it out up there?
(I enjoy looking at windy and playing guessing games at what I'd do if it were me... )
|
|
|
Post by ComfortZone on Oct 30, 2023 7:33:33 GMT 12
Further to your point in the other thread about paying for a weather forecaster CZ, and with the benefit of hindsight now/purely out of interest... - If you hadn't have paid for the advice, would you still have left at the same time with that troppy in the coral sea and the current blow brewing? And what would have happened if you'd stayed put? Would you have gotten bashed up while you waited it out up there? (I enjoy looking at windy and playing guessing games at what I'd do if it were me... ) Interesting question, especially for the passage back to NZ you are obviously looking in the direction of NZ rather than over your shoulder. This was the opening para from Bruce that prompted us to leave on 20 Oct, rather than the intended 22 Oct I am suggesting a change of plan. There are growing indications that there could be a rare very early season tropical cyclone forming north of Fiji, moving across Vanuatu then threatening the New Caledonia area during next week. So with this in mind, and knowing their long range tracks are uncertain, I now recommend leaving this Friday. Although the conditions are not ideal and would need motoring for the first 2 days, I think it best to get well into your passage before the cyclone threat builds and it could then become too late to go.Would I have made this change, with hind sight I would say 50:50. The forecasts from Windy and Predictwind were all over the place as to what that low might do at the time. I shared this info with 2 other Kiwi boats both intending to leave on the Sunday, and they acted on it and left Friday with us and may well have passed it onto others. The other driver for me was my Offshore Insurance expiring 31 Oct, ie had to be back in NZ by then and they would not extend it. Ironically the week before when we were in Port Moselle Marina they were undertaking a maintenance inspection of all the cyclone mooring lines, divers swimming around etc. There is a row of anchor blocks in each fairway with lines running to all the berths. If there was a real cyclone threat and we could not get into the marina then I would have bolted for the best cyclone hole in new Caledonia, top of the Baie de Prony in the south(have a look at my tracker where it says "warm spring"). At the end of the day I see paying Bruce AUD$350 for the passage as being very good value for his professional advice, $350 does not go very far if you have to repair a damaged boat which has a $15,000 excess on it.
|
|