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Post by muzled on Oct 30, 2023 8:53:58 GMT 12
Further to your point in the other thread about paying for a weather forecaster CZ, and with the benefit of hindsight now/purely out of interest... - If you hadn't have paid for the advice, would you still have left at the same time with that troppy in the coral sea and the current blow brewing? And what would have happened if you'd stayed put? Would you have gotten bashed up while you waited it out up there? (I enjoy looking at windy and playing guessing games at what I'd do if it were me... ) Interesting question, especially for the passage back to NZ you are obviously looking in the direction of NZ rather than over your shoulder. This was the opening para from Bruce that prompted us to leave on 20 Oct, rather than the intended 22 Oct I am suggesting a change of plan. There are growing indications that there could be a rare very early season tropical cyclone forming north of Fiji, moving across Vanuatu then threatening the New Caledonia area during next week. So with this in mind, and knowing their long range tracks are uncertain, I now recommend leaving this Friday. Although the conditions are not ideal and would need motoring for the first 2 days, I think it best to get well into your passage before the cyclone threat builds and it could then become too late to go.Would I have made this change, with hind sight I would say 50:50. The forecasts from Windy and Predictwind were all over the place as to what that low might do at the time. I shared this info with 2 other Kiwi boats both intending to leave on the Sunday, and they acted on it and left Friday with us and may well have passed it onto others. The other driver for me was my Offshore Insurance expiring 31 Oct, ie had to be back in NZ by then and they would not extend it. Ironically the week before when we were in Port Moselle Marina they were undertaking a maintenance inspection of all the cyclone mooring lines, divers swimming around etc. There is a row of anchor blocks in each fairway with lines running to all the berths. If there was a real cyclone threat and we could not get into the marina then I would have bolted for the best cyclone hole in new Caledonia, top of the Baie de Prony in the south(have a look at my tracker where it says "warm spring"). At the end of the day I see paying Bruce AUD$350 for the passage as being very good value for his professional advice, $350 does not go very far if you have to repair a damaged boat which has a $15,000 excess on it. Yep, for peace of mind alone, that is money very well spent imo. If you'd left on the intended date you would certainly have had some wind for the last bit of the trip.
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Post by Cantab on Oct 30, 2023 11:47:57 GMT 12
Bruce made an outstanding call on that one. Very difficult decision, you wouldn't normally leave on that weather, and it was a pretty unusual forecast, but it was balancing stay vs go and he, and yourself, got it right. Those that left Fiji or Tonga in a panic probably wish they had stayed, those that hesitated and then left really copped it. Would like to know what his advice would have been for those further east than you? They would have made it too if they left early enough but did they need to leave?
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Post by ComfortZone on Oct 31, 2023 12:45:41 GMT 12
Bruce made an outstanding call on that one. Very difficult decision, you wouldn't normally leave on that weather, and it was a pretty unusual forecast, but it was balancing stay vs go and he, and yourself, got it right. Those that left Fiji or Tonga in a panic probably wish they had stayed, those that hesitated and then left really copped it. Would like to know what his advice would have been for those further east than you? They would have made it too if they left early enough but did they need to leave? I find the best benefit from using Bruce's services is determining the departure date. I have used him for 3 passages now, 10/2019 New Cal to NZ, 5/2023 NZ to Vanuatu and just now New Cal to NZ. We can see approx 90% of relevant information in public domain resources eg Windy, Predictwind, Metservice and BoM, but with the additional resources he has on hand he can fill in that 10% and give me more confidence of the best time to go, which he has in each case. He did say we would not be departing New Cal in ideal conditions, but just wanted to distance us from the possible cyclone. Of note alot of boats left Fiji and Tonga a couple of days before our departure, the MPI guy at Marsden told us they had cleared 27 boats in at Opua the day before we arrived. A major issue affecting departure dates is arriving crew. The ideal date for me to depart New Cal was actually Thurs 12 Oct, text book weather picture. Our friends on Sweetwaters went that day, with Rob (US singlehander on the Elliott 1550 Kiwi Coyote) leaving the next morning, both had fast passages, Rob was in Opua in just over 5 days. But we could not leave because I was still waiting for 1 crew to arrive. He was booked to fly Fri 13 Oct. I contacted him at the beginning of the week to see if he could come up on an earlier flight but he had work commitments he could not break. The related issue which I had forgotten when we agreed his travel time months earlier is that New Cal immigration is only open Mon - Fri, 8.00-11.30. So if someone arrives on Friday, there are no flights Wed or Thurs, you cannot clear out until Monday. So many times boats have departed into less than ideal conditions due to crew constraints. This sadly was the case with Essence, the yachts leaving Fiji the previous week had a fast if somewhat bouncy trip home, but Pam and Stu were waiting for crew to arrive, they only got a cursory forecast from Bob McD, did not have their Iridium GO functioning and ran into that deep low, which was forecast, near to NZ.
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Post by ComfortZone on Apr 30, 2024 22:50:54 GMT 12
Many boats getting ready to head for the islands, a few have left already. I guess many are waiting for 1 May due to insurance restrictions Weather window looking good for the next week so look for a mass exodus. Having dinner with a mate tonite who has been told by Customs he is about no 70 on the list of those planning to clear from Opua in the next few days!
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Post by Fogg on Apr 30, 2024 23:00:32 GMT 12
I suggested he checks out of Marsden Cove instead.
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Post by ComfortZone on May 1, 2024 7:54:22 GMT 12
I suggested he checks out of Marsden Cove instead. Already being considered. Marsden Cove is always my preference, for me the only reason to go to Opua is if you are on the rally and want to join the social side.
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Post by em on May 1, 2024 8:14:27 GMT 12
I saw a couple of boats making use of the southerly late yesterday arvo heading straight out . Maybe timing for a midnight EEZ crossing ?
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Post by Fogg on May 4, 2024 10:37:56 GMT 12
Busy.
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Post by ComfortZone on May 5, 2024 8:56:05 GMT 12
Most appear to be overseas vessels, I believe the ICNZ rally will depart this week, weather permitting, along with quite a few other NZ boats. Then you will see a really crowded ocean. Edit - having a look at Windy some big seas forecast on the the back of the low coming down from Tonga later in the week, not a good place to be
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Post by GO30 on May 5, 2024 12:49:30 GMT 12
Most appear to be overseas vessels, I believe the ICNZ rally will depart this week, weather permitting, along with quite a few other NZ boats. Then you will see a really crowded ocean. Edit - having a look at Windy some big seas forecast on the the back of the low coming down from Tonga later in the week, not a good place to be Yeap they have spotted that, I've had 3 boats just this morning drop me a note saying send their gear north quick rather than to Fiji/Tonga to meet them on arrival. A few left planing until a bit late, a couple got caught in the crazy world freight has become in the last month due to too many people with guns aiming them at ships. And one who got everything organised real early discovered, or we did on its behalf, at the last moment swapping the gypsy to new chain which should have been a 2 minute exercise, he just happened to buy one of only 6 boats in the world running a standard Lofrans that had been tweaked to non-standard by a EU boat builder as they were fucking dumbarse stupid, even more stupid if you can believe it is possible, than a Green Party MP. There is no need to custom as Lofrans have that option off the shelf. Why any muppet needs 12mm G40 on a 44ft raft is beyond us and the owners so they are going to 10mm.
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Post by ComfortZone on May 9, 2024 8:57:25 GMT 12
Word is the ICNZ rally yachts and quite a few others are planning to head north tomorrow, even tho the forecast is quite uncertain at the Fiji end. Had quite a long discussion with cruising friends this morning about this, noting there will be quite big seas the first couple of days and then there is the uncertain behaviour of a trough forming to the south of Fiji about the time they would be approaching. Bruce Buckley has advised them it should be OK but windy at start and end of passage. Plan is they will head to Marsden Cove today to be ready for departure tomorrow if it looks good, or reschedule if still not comfortable with the forecast. This is the guessing game we all go thru when contemplating departure and knowing we have to make educated guesses as to what conditions will be like near end of passage.
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Post by Fogg on May 9, 2024 21:20:40 GMT 12
NZ has to be one of the most difficult countries in the world to sail in / out of.
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Post by em on May 9, 2024 21:25:39 GMT 12
NZ has to be one of the most difficult countries in the world to sail in / out of. Especially if you are an NZer
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Post by em on May 10, 2024 9:47:05 GMT 12
No takers yet for the 20-25 knot southerly out in front of here .
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Post by ComfortZone on May 10, 2024 12:34:51 GMT 12
No takers yet for the 20-25 knot southerly out in front of here . Quite a number leaving BoI and Marsden Cove now. Going to be a cold night and big seas for them
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